Planning and Budgeting

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Inflation is one of the most important problems in Iran throughout last decades, and the historical studies of inflation trend in Iran indicate persistence of this variable. Inflation persistence refers to the tendency of inflation to converge slowly towards its long-run measure (equilibrium inflation) in response to various economic shocks. The historical measuring of inflation persistence has estimated by the univariate autoregressive timeseries models and include the sum of autoregressive coefficients to estimate persistence. In this paper we implement this approach and then another non-parametric approach to measure inflation persistence for the period 1338- 1390 and some sub-period, covering a structural break in 1357. The results show a remarkable persistence of inflation in years after Revolution, especially for the period ending in 1374 furthermore, the results indicate that in periods before structural break in 1357 (The advent of Revolution), there is no obvious inflation persistence

Keywords: Inflation, Inflation Persistence, Autoregressive Models, Structural

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