Shahid Beheshti University , fr.khodadadi@gmail.com
Abstract: (43 Views)
The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of the government's foreign exchange oil revenues and productivity in a small open oil economy under two low credit scenarios. Above the monetary policy maker. To achieve this goal, a new Keynesian random dynamic general equilibrium model has been designed in terms of the realities of Iran's economy, and then the effects of impulses have been investigated. After determining the input values of the model and estimating the parameters using the seasonal data of the Iranian economy during the period of 1991-2022 using the Bayesian estimation method, the results obtained from the simulation of the model variables indicate the validity of the model in describing the fluctuations of the Iranian economy. By examining the reaction shock functions for the key variables of the model in relation to the impulse of the government's foreign exchange oil revenues and productivity under two scenarios of low and high credibility of the monetary policy maker, we came to the conclusion that, when the monetary policy maker has the necessary credibility, the economic agents of the effects of the impulses consider it temporary and do not tie their decisions to it. Therefore, even if the policymaker does not adopt a specific policy to reduce the fluctuations of the impulses, the effects of the impulses will be discharged faster and the variables will stabilize sooner than when the credibility of the monetary policymaker is low.
Keywords: Credibility of the monetary policy maker, Impulse of foreign exchange earnings, Impulse of productivity, Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model
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