Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 17 2 2012 8 1 A Neural Network Model for Activity-Cost Relationship Estimation in Performance-based Budgeting 7 38 FA Adel Azar azara@modares.ac.ir Y Ameneh Khadivar a_khadivar@yahoo.com N One of the concerns of budgeting researchers and managers is how to relate performance data to budget as one of the key concepts of performance-based budgeting. One of the most intricate parts of performance-based budgeting is how to attribute activities to resources and determine the shares of resource drivers. In most customary costing and budgeting methods, it is usually assumed that there is a linear relationship between activities and costs. However, a cost function is not always linear in practice and presuming it as linear would lead to faulty calculations in the budgets of activities, outputs and plans. This article uses artificial neural networks to solve the problem of estimating the relationship between activities and resources (costs). The data of Tejarat Bank of Iran were used to train and test the neural network model. The distinguishing characteristic of this model in comparison to other models is that it considers cost-cost center relationship as non-linear. Special architecture of the suggested network, i.e. multilayer feed-forward network architecture with jump connections, makes it possible not only to forecast costs but also to extract the share value of the resource drivers out of the model. When the results of the suggested model on the value of drivers were compared with the results of experts’ opinion poll on the resource drivers, an acceptable difference was shown. Performance-based Budgeting, Cost Estimation Relationship (CER), Artificial Neural Networks, Activity-based Costing http://eprj.ir/article-1-608-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-608-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 17 2 2012 8 1 Evaluating the Effectiveness of Monetary Transmission Channels on Production and Inflation besides Analyzing their Relative Importance in Iran’s Economy 39 63 FA Akbar Komijani komijani@ut.ac.ir Y Farhad Alinejad-Mehrabani alinejadfa@ut.ac.ir N In the area of monetary and credit policy-making, the policy-makers should take into special consideration the interactions of monetary policy tool with ‘assets market’ and ‘money market’ while analyzing the relationship of the both with macroeconomic variables such as real production and inflation in a higher level. It is a must to get familiar with the mentioned matters in an attempt to efficiently identify and implement the right policies. A helpful way to study and realize the monetary policy is to focus on monetary transmission mechanisms, through which the activities of the central bank would take effect. Transmission mechanisms of monetary policy are implemented via different routes while influencing various variables and markets with different speeds and intensities. This article tries to evaluate the effectiveness power of four main monetary transmission channels i.e., 1) interest, 2) foreign exchange, 3) assets (stock) price, and 4) bank loaning, on real production growth rate and inflation rate by means of seasonal data within 1: 1990 – 2: 2008. According to the findings of the research, all four channels were powerful enough to transmit the monetary activities to the production and inflation growth rates in other words, these four channels are regarded as active channels. Moreover, monetary policies exert the highest effect on real production growth through bank loaning channel. Meanwhile, monetary policy is most effective on inflation rate via foreign exchange channel. Monetary Transmission Mechanisms, Monetary Transmission Channels, Policy Tools, Central Bank http://eprj.ir/article-1-609-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-609-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 17 2 2012 8 1 Estimating Budget Credit of Target-Oriented Protective Policy Execution in Meeting Food Security 65 95 FA Kambiz Hojabr Kiani khkiani@Yahoo.com Y Farnoush Hajiha fdhajiha@Gmail.com N Majid Mazid-Abadi Farahani N Subsidies payment is a policy to guarantee the social security, yet its real effectiveness on the social welfare and meeting the envisaged goals is open to question due to imposing heavy expenditure and shortage of public resources. Therefore, keeping the necessity of subsidies target-orientation in mind, this research tries to estimate the budget credit required to execute target-oriented protective policy in establishing the food security. As getting access to real quantitative values of consumers’ preferences through the use of cross-sectional data is more precise, this paper uses household cost-income detailed data in 2009 in the framework of the consumption amount and the costs of 216 food items in 10 cost groups categorized in urban and rural divisions. The methods and techniques employed in this study are as follows: Modeling to Generate Alternative (MGA), Approximated Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), and Compensating Variation (CV). Thus a quantitative relationship was made between definable factors of ‘food - nutrition security’ and welfare effects of price liberalization of the commodities effective in food security. The results indicate that the amount of subsidies allocated to the target group (while having fulfilled the optimal basket and considering the scenarios explained on the price liberalization) were respectively 449884, 51025, 51777, and 52572 billion Rials it is about 5.15, 5.27, 5.35, and 5.43 percent of the total public budget in 2009, the base year of the study. Food Security, Protective Policies, Optimal Food Basket, Approximated Almost Ideal Demand System, Compensating Variation, Welfare Effects http://eprj.ir/article-1-612-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-612-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 17 2 2012 8 1 Iran\'s Population Projection considering Socio-Economic Factors based on a Multidisciplinary Approach 97 126 FA Mohammad-Javad Mahmoudi mahmoudi@psrc.ac.ir Y Shahla Kazemi-pour skazemipour@gmail.com N Mehdi Ahrari meahrari@yahoo.com N Ali Nikoo-nesbati alinikoo77@gmail.com N Population growth is a phenomenon that may not be explained only by relying on economic factors. Thus, this article tries to explain population growth issue according to Inglehart-Welzel's Modernization and Cultural Change Theory besides economic factors. It also tries to take a multidisciplinary approach to project and model the strategic variable of population on the basis of socio-economic variables influencing it according to Inglehart's theory up to 2025 in the framework of three economic scenarios, i.e. continuing status quo, the effect of Subsidies Target-Orientation Law and the fulfillment of Iran 2025 Vision goals. The results show that population growth in each scenario follows a decreasing trend asserting Modernization and Cultural Change Theory on the embrace of post-materialistic values. Making the comprehensive population policies according to developmental and multidisciplinary perspectives is a must in Iran's strategic and long-run planning system in a way to project and analyze the future socio-economic and cultural situations. Modernization Theory, Inglehart-Welzel, Population Growth Theories, Neural Network, Institution http://eprj.ir/article-1-613-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-613-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 17 2 2012 8 1 The Impacts of Exchange Rate Variations on Prices, GDP, Export and Import of Different Economic Sectors in Iran using a CGE Models Approach 127 148 FA Masoumeh Fouladi Y Exchange rates changes can be employed as an economic policy instrument to realize the goals of policy-makers. This instrument is used in the economies where the exchange rates are not fully floating. In other words, it could not be used in the economies where the exchange rates are determined only by the exchange rates market mechanism. This is to say, such an instrument should be applied in the economic systems in which the exchange rates are determined in a fixed or controlled floating manner. When the exchange rate increases, it is expected that the prices of import goods increase, leading to the decreases in the demand for import goods. On the other hand, as exchange rate is increasing, the domestic products become cheaper in foreign markets, causing the exports to increase. As a result, the exports increase and imports decrease should stimulate production sector to raise the output. It is to be noted that the degree of exchange rate influence on the export and import refers to the elasticity of demand for the export and import. Nonetheless, market shares of these goods play a specific role in increasing the demand for the products. Hence output increase might not be sensible. In order to study the effects of the exchange rates changes on the amount of production, imports and exports of products, this article makes use of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models. The advantage of CGE models over econometric models is that the former makes it possible to study the implications of performing a policy in the framework of a systematic model, composed of various economic variables. Meanwhile, CGE models are independent of time series data. This article tries to study the impacts of the exchange rate variations on the levels of prices, productions, imports and exports of various economic sectors. In the mean time, the effects of the exchange rate variations on the GDP and its components are to be discussed in the article as well. Exchange Rate, Imports-Exports, GDP, Economic Sectors, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models http://eprj.ir/article-1-614-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-614-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 17 2 2012 8 1 The Institutional Fundamentals of Poverty from Veblen\'s Viewpoint 149 174 FA Mahmoud Mashadi-Ahmad mmashhadi@ut.ac.ir Y Doubtlessly, poverty is one of the greatest concerns of human societies and economic systems. Obviously, if economics and economists can not produce a proper analysis of such a bitter phenomenon and provide a solution to fight against it, their knowledge will be in vain. In Fact if productivity-oriented economists are merely able to attribute poverty to low productivity of individuals, they have to admit that their economic theory is no more than a tale for half of human beings. This is one of the critical and emphatic points, explained in this paper that makes it distinguished from other works in this area. Indeed the subject of this study is that diametrically different from the opinion of the mainstream economists, poverty does not have an origin related to individuals on the contrary, it comes from institutional shortcomings and it is not just the outcome of individual inefficiency. This article tries to explain that mainstream economics has not well introduced the rots of poverty while institutions such as well-to-do class, heritage, manners and traditions could rather be regarded the major causes of individual poverty. Moreover, deductive logics as well as mathematical methodology, which are widely used in mainstream economics, have deprived such economists from the research methods emphasized by institutional economists such as participant-observer method. Yet, some recent institutional researches, conducted with the same method, have well revealed that most previous studies on poverty had neglected crucial points pertaining to the subject. Poverty, Institution, Productivity, Institutional Economics, Mainstream Economics http://eprj.ir/article-1-615-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-615-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 17 2 2012 8 1 Strategic Control Variables in Downsizing Process of Iran\'s Governmental Organizations from the Viewpoints of Managers and Experts in Mazandaran Governor-General Office and its Affiliated Bodies 175 207 FA Mohammad-Reza Tabibi mreza.tabibi@gmail.com Y Mohammad-Sheta Dadfar shetabadra14@gmail.com N Downsizing is a method of making structural reforms in governmental sector. Downsizing signifies that the reduction of executive expenses leads the government to the achievement of its main functions, namely: supervision, leadership and sovereignty affairs, consistent with Islamic good governance in governmental organizations. An outstandingly fundamental subject in a successful downsizing is the strategic control in the downsizing process. Strategic control could be assumed as the dominant approach, trying to devise a strategic planning from the start to the execution in any agency, organization or institution. This indicates that downsizing requires a procedural approach therefore it needs a gradual and stage-based method, and strategic control can play such a role in downsizing process. This research takes 'downsizing' as the independent variable, and 'strategic control' as the dependent variable to examine strategic control variables in downsizing process. Therefore, having explained the models of these two variables, an integrated model was composed. This research is an applied type that uses descriptive survey method and its data are analyzed by SPSS software and other statistical methods. The research population was 334 persons out of whom 75 persons were taken for estimation through random sampling method. A questionnaire was devised to collect the information. The results indicated that the managers of Mazandaran Governor-General Office and its affiliated bodies asserted on the necessity to apply strategic control in the downsizing process in individual, organizational as well as individual-organizational levels. In this way, all three hypotheses of the research were affirmed as the significance level (P) in all the items was less than 5 percent, and the value of (T), resulted in all the items, is greater than the that of the table (1.96). Moreover, regarding the extension of hypotheses by complete induction with the aim of attaining certitude on the subject, the researchers recommend such an emphasis on strategic control in downsizing Iranian governmental organizations. Strategic Control, Downsizing, Governmental Organizations, Mazandaran Governor-General Office and Affiliated Bodies http://eprj.ir/article-1-616-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-616-en.pdf