Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 19 1 2014 4 1 Absolute and Relative Poverty Line Estimation based on Economies of Scale Approach through Stone-Geary Model: A Case Study of Iranian Urban Households (2006- 2011) 3 30 FA Ebrahim Negahdari Ph.D Candidate of Economics, Department of Economics, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran ebrahim.negahdari@gmail.com Y Khosro Piraee Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. kh.piraee@gmail.com N GholamReza Keshavarz Haddad Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Graduate School of Management and Economics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran , Iran. g.k.haddad@sharif.edu N Ali Haghighat Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. N Poverty line, either absolute or relative, is a quite prevalent policy tool for characterizing the poor from the non-poor. Taking household characteristics such as age, education, employment, marital status and family dimensions into account, this research intends to estimate the poverty lines among urban areas of Iran by means of the Stone-Geary Utility Function. Hence, both absolute and relative poverty lines were estimated for the urban households' income and expenditure information across the provinces of Iran within 1991- 2011 period through an analysis via non-linear regression and two-phase panel. The results show that the factors such as age, education, profession, marital status, sex, and relative income have positive effects on food and non-food expenditures. The absolute poverty line of one-person and ten-person households was calculated to be 1803144 rials and 17318746 rials, respectively in 2011. This reflects economies of scale as to the consumption of goods and services in households; i.e. the amount of households’ expenses does not typically follow a one-one relation pattern with the number of family members. Absolute Poverty is Relative, Economies of Scale, Stone-Geary Model, Becker- Samuelson Approach, Urban. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1134-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1134-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 19 1 2014 4 1 Estimation of Bank Credit Refunding Failure Using Logit Regression 52 31 FA Hamid Sepehrdoust Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Social Science, Bu-Ali-Sina University, Iran hamidbasu1340@gmail.com Y Adel Berjisian Ph.D Sudent of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Social Science, Bu-Ali-Sina University, Iran. adelberjisian@gmail.com N The current crises and also diminishing profitability in a banking system are often resulted from lack of efficiency in credit risks management and control. The most important instrument that banks need to adopt for monitoring and management of credit risk is customers’ ranking system. This study tries to employ Logit regression in a practical model for ranking the customers and to estimate the probable credit default in Parsian Bank. For this reason, certain data pertaining to the customers’ previous and present records such as professional stability, collateral, income and some other major factors are collected in order; then the credit default probability was measured for each customer through ranking and scoring. The results showed that the non-default probability for the credits paid to the customer has positive relationship with variables such as the value of collateral received from the customer, their monthly income, the status of real-estate ownership of the credit-applying customer, the age of applicant, and also their professional and educational status. On the other hand, the aforementioned probability is negatively related to “the amount of credit paid to the customer” as well as to the “repayment duration”. Scoring, Refunding Failure, Parsian Bank, Credit Risk, Logit Regression http://eprj.ir/article-1-1135-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1135-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 19 1 2014 4 1 Performance-Based Budgeting Model: A Robust Optimization Approach Case Study of Tarbiat Modares University 53 84 FA Adel Azar Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Management; Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran AZARA@modares.ac.ir N Mohammad-Reza Amini PhD Student of System Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Mr.amini.im@gmail.com Y Parviz Ahmadi Associate Professor, Department of Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran ahmadi@sadad.co.ir N Going over the literature, we observed that there is no mathematical model that can takes account of the Dual Performance-based Budgeting(PBB) structure in Tarbiat Modares University. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to construct a PBB model for the university so that the budget is allocated not only to the plans in accordance with their priorities, but also to the faculties based on approved student per capita by the Ministry of Sciences, Researches and Technology. Considering the various criteria in the university system and due to the stochastic uncertainties in the problem parameters, the researcher formulated a Goal Programming model of Robust PBB. The pivotal point of such model regards applying performance indicators, calculated based on the data envelopment analysis approach (DEA) to determine the importance coefficient of each educational groups in order to allocate its budget share. In addition, the weights of goals and the priority of each plan were determined using some paired comparison questionnaires completed by the experts. The RPBBGP model has 5 goals, 1627 constraints and 1236 decision variables. The results presented on both macro and operational levels – and also on simulation of Crisp and two RFPBB models, demonstrated the high level of accountability of RFPBB models in response to the uncertainty in the parameters of problem and also in managing the level of decision risk. Correspondingly, having the approved budget realized, the decision-makers can make use of the results taken from robust model solution and simulation to allocate the budget to the plans and faculties in proportion to the realized budget. Performance-based Budgeting, Robust Optimization, Goal Programming, Data Envelopment Analysis, University Budget. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1136-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1136-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 19 1 2014 4 1 The Impacts of Fiscal Policies on Production, Employment and Households’ Income in Iran: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model Approach 85 110 FA Masoomeh Fooladi Member of Faculty in Economics, University of Tehran, Iran mfooladi@ut.ac.ir Y Hedieh Setayesh PhD Student, Faculty of Economics and Management, Islamic Azad University-Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran hedi_setayesh@yahoo.com N Using a static computable general equilibrium model (CGE), this paper examines the impacts of different types of tax on important macroeconomic variables. In addition to tax, government expenditures were taken into consideration to attain a better understanding of the extent of government interference via taxing instrument. The results indicate that government expenditures exert stronger effect on output and employment. Meanwhile, the findings regarding an increase in taxes on income, foreign trade and economic sectors (tax on goods and services) illustrate that income tax has the least negative effect on GDP; but tax on foreign trade (tax on import) has the maximal effect on it. The current composition of tax revenues implies that the share of income tax in total tax revenues in Iran is less than that of global average. On the other hand, the share of tax on foreign trade in total tax revenues in Iran is above the global average. The results, additionally, confirm that an increase in “tax on import”, more than that of other types of taxes, will lead to more severe decrease in production; contrarily, an increase in income tax causes the least decrease in production. The impacts of an increase in tax revenues on other macroeconomic variables confirm that the negative effects of income tax on these variables are less than those of tax on import and tax on goods and services. Fiscal Policy, Tax, Government Expenditures, Balanced Budget, CGE Model. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1137-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1137-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 19 1 2014 4 1 The Effect of Financial and Tax Policies on Agricultural Trade in Iran 111 128 FA Ali Dehgan Harati M.A. Student of Agricultural Economic, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran. Adehghan89@gmail.com N Hossien Mehrabi Boshrabadi Associate Professor, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran. Hmehrabi2000@gmail.com N Alireza Rahbar Dehghan M.A. in Agricultural Economic, Sistan & Baluchestan University, Iran. Alirezarahbar88@gmail.com Y Economic policies refer to certain government interventions in economy which aims to achieve certain socio-economic targets and to lead the economic sphere from status quo to ideal status. Financial policies are of the most effective economic policies that influence the government financial system and its corresponding macroeconomic variables, both from the revenues and expenditures point of view. Owing to the prominent role of agriculture in the economy of Iran, implementing the respective financial policies would be influential on agricultural production as well as its export and import. Accordingly, this paper attempts to survey the effect of government financial policies on agricultural trade during 1971-2009. For this purpose, the relationship among government expenditure, tax index and agricultural products trade were estimated using econometric models in the short runs and the long runs. The results indicated government expenditure and tax index had positive effect on the value of agricultural products import and export in the short run. Yet, in the long run, only the government expenditure exerted positive impact on the agricultural products import-export value, but the effect of tax index was negative. Consequently, the reformation of the tax system is advised through reducing the rates of tax on investment, to further investment and production as well as to promote employment in agricultural sector. Financial Policy, Tax Index, Agricultural Trade, Agricultural Imports, Vector Auto-Regression http://eprj.ir/article-1-1138-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1138-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 19 1 2014 4 1 Market Mechanism or Democracy: Which Comes First? 129 150 FA Jafar Ebadi Associate Professor in Economics, University of Tehran, Iran Jebadi@ut.ac.ir N Mahmoud Motevasseli Professor in Economics, University of Tehran, Iran motavaselim@yahoo.com N Ali Nikoonesbati M.A. in Economics and Researcher, Iran alinikoo77@gmail.com Y The question of precedence of market economy over democracy (or vice versa) has always been a challenging problem in the domain of political economy. This paper tries to study view points of those advocating the market mechanism precedence to democracy, the proponents of Critical Historical Juncture theory, as well as followers of democracy precedence to market mechanism.The findings of this study show that necessary institutions for a competitive market, especially the property rights, are formed in the transitional process  leading to democracy. Therefore, one could not claim that market mechanism precedes the transition to democracy. Meanwhile, the transitional process to democracy is too complicated to be explained merely through the elements of market mechanism. Market, Law of Ownership, Democracy, Critical Historical Juncture, Institution. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1139-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1139-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 19 1 2014 4 1 Comparing the Effects of Improving Economic and Political Institutions on per Capita Income in Oil-Exporting and Industrial Countries 151 178 FA Hasan Sobhani Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Iran. sobhanihs@ut.ac.ir N Saeed Bayat Ph.D Student, University of Tehran and Researcher in Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Iran bayat_461@ut.ac.ir Y This paper comparatively investigates different effects of improving economic and political institutions on per capita income in the countries whose institutional performance is evaluated either ideal or else. For this purpose, this study applies econometric analysis of cross-sectional data. In the econometric approach, the effect of improving institutions on per capita income of G20 countries is compared with that of oil-exporting countries. The results show that the effect of improving institutions on per capita income in oil exporting countries with low institutional performance is greater than that in G20 countries, where the institutional performance is visibly good. Hence, the constitutional law executives in oil exporting countries should try to improve their economic and political institutional arrangements more robustly than those in industrial states. Economic and Political Institutions, Per Capita Income, Cross-sectional Econometrics, Oil-Exporting Countries, G20 Countries http://eprj.ir/article-1-1140-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1140-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 19 1 2014 4 1 Social Policy: Themes and Approaches 179 206 FA Saeed Vesali Assistant Professor, Allameh Tabatabaie University, Tehran, Iran N Reza Omidi Ph.D. Candidate of Social Policy, Allameh Tabatabaie University, Tehran, Iran Rezaomidi79@gmail.com Y Social policy as an academic discipline focuses on study the methods of devising and analyzing social policies. In the mean time, social policy may refer to governments’ interventions that deal with social problems, particularly in health, education, housing, welfare and social security and other spheres which bear effective role in endorsing political legitimacy of respective states. Social policy would appear more substantial when societies confront a variety of social, economic and environmental risks and uncertainties; accordingly, the theoretical and empirical arguments arise.  Considering the current arguments in ​​the domain of social policy, this paper tries to classify the backgrounds of formation of theoretical approaches in the area. Assuming a descriptive approach, the paper reviews various definitions of social policy and categorizes the relevant theoretical approaches into three main theories: representational, normative and explanatory. The findings show how negligence about time variances and institutional changes in various countries as well as the concurrence of the studies in this area with the failure of welfare states has made the explanation and description of such approaches insufficient. Moreover, sheer emphasis on the nature and extent of welfare and social expenses of governments would not be a proper indicator for analyzing welfare system and a dominating approach to social investment in different countries. Social Policy, Representational Theory, Explanatory Theory, Normative Theory, Social Welfare. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1141-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1141-en.pdf