Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 20 4 2016 1 1 The Effect of Political Cycle on Unemployment Growth Rate in Selected Developed and Developing Countries 3 30 FA Abolfazl Shahabadi Bu-Ali Sina University shahabadi@basu.ac.ir Y Nima Nilforoushan Shiraz University nimanilforoushan@gmail.com N Maryam Khaleghi Raghab Esfahan Universtiy khaleghi15756@gmail.com N During the last few decades, the study of the effect of non-economic variables in the economy has become a prominent subject matter for the researchers. One of the most important issue in these cases are the effects of elections (as a political phenomenon) on the economic variables, which in the economic literature is referred to as the political cycle. Thus, in this study, by using panel data for 29 selected countries (in two groups including the developed and developing countries) during the period 1994-2011, we attempt to evaluate the effects of political cycles (indicators include: the year of the election, the minority government, coalitions, government ideology) on the unemployment growth rate. To investigate this, generalized least square (GLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques have been used. Based on the results, candidates of each country irrespective of their ideology (left wing or right wing) try to gain a greater number of people's vote by increasing job opportunities, reducing unemployment and promoting the business environment. Furthermore, the variables of the minority government and coalitions have significant influence (respectively positive and negative effect) on the growth of unemployment rate in developing countries(unlike the cases of the developed countries). Political Cycles, Unemployment, Development, Vote, Panel Data http://eprj.ir/article-1-1226-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1226-en.pdf
Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 20 4 2016 1 1 Policy Making Requirements for Inflation Targeting Framework in Iran: Applying SVARX Model 31 54 FA Hooman Karami Semnan University ho.karami @semnan.ac.ir N Saeed Bayat Foreign Affairs Ministry of Iran, bayat_461@alumni.ut.ac.ir Y Ali Bahador Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. ali.bahador@modares.ac.ir N Low and stable inflation rates are essential to promote economic growth and welfare of the people. Therefore, many countries pursue their policies within the framework of inflation targeting to achieve low and stable inflation rates. Monetary policy implementation based on inflation targeting is a framework that has been adopted by many countries since 1990. To implement such framework, a series of structural and policy-making reforms should occur in many sectors of the economy. This paper concentrates on policy-making reforms and, by applying SVARX model, attempts to identify and introduce policy-making reforms appropriate to inflation targeting framework. The results of the paper show that SVARX model with inflation, liquidity growth, budget deficit growth and economic growth as endogenous variables, and exchange rate growth and two dummy variables, for controlling the effects of eliminating subsidies and inflation expectation break, can present policy-making reforms appropriate to inflation targeting framework.  Inflation Targeting, Policy-making Reforms, Structural Reforms, SVARX Model. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1150-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1150-en.pdf
Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 20 4 2016 1 1 Measuring Energy Consumption Efficiency Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with Undesirable Factors 55 70 FA Seyed Hossein Sajadifar Islamic Azad University, h.sajadifar@gmail.com Y Mehdi Asali Institute for International Energy Studies mehd.asali@gmail.com N Bahram Fathi Islamic Azad University, Shahryar Branch bahram125fathi@gmail.com N Azam Mohamadbagheri Senior Researcher of Institute for International Energy Studies amohamadbagheri@gmail.com N Iran’s vision statement 1404, maintains that the nation needs to uphold its productivity and innovative spirit in order to enhance the economy’s competitiveness. Having considered the implications of the vision statement 1404 for the country’s sustainable development, in this paper, an attempt is made to measure Iran’s energy efficiency compared to the neighboring countries and some other nations, in the time period 2007-i2012. Using the well-known Data-Envelope Analysis methodology (DEA), we investigate whether the country has succeeded in closing the gap pertaining to the energy efficiency goals determined at the Vision Statement 1404. The study shows, however, in the time period under consideration, energy efficiency in Iran and some neighboring countries, have in fact deteriorated, due to some policy deficiency, particularly universal energy subsidies. The result clearly implies the need for a set of consistent and pro-efficiency energy policies in Iran, endured in the medium and long-run, in order to establish a reasonable path to energy efficiency level envisaged in vision statement 1404. Data Envelopment Analysis, Desirable and Undesirable Factors, CO2 Diffusion, Energy Consumption, Energy Efficiency, Iran’s Vision 1404. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1171-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1171-en.pdf
Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 20 4 2016 1 1 The Real Exchange Rate as a Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Economy of Iran: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model 71 106 FA sara shahraki ferdowsi university of mashhad sara.shahraki@stu.um.ac.ir N Ahmad Sabahi ferdowsi university of mashhad Sabahi@um.ac.ir Y mohammad hossein mahdavi adeli ferdowsi university of mashhad mh-mahdavi@um.ac.ir N mostafa salimifar ferdowsi university of mashhad mostafa@um.ac.ir N This paper examines whether in the analysis of the impact of monetary policy, the exchange rate can play a role along with the interest rate as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy effects on economic variables or not? For this purpose, the general dynamic stochastic equilibrium models were used in the form of a New Keynesian small open macro-economy; accordingly, in this study, the Bayesian approach has been implemented to obtain the estimates of parameters and conclusion in this model. To this end, Dynare was used, which is a general and suitable tool for Bayesian estimation in the context of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. This model was designed for the economy of Iran, considering oil-based economies and the currency substitution existence. Then, its calibration and simulation were conducted with Iran's economic data for the period 1995-2011. The results from model validation, univariate and multivariate recognition of Markov Monte Carlo chain and analysis of the model impulse responses show that in Iran's economy, the exchange rate plays a role along with the interest rate as a monetary transmission mechanism. Small Open Macroeconomic, New Keynesian, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, Exchange Rate, Transmission Mechanism. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1144-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1144-en.pdf
Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 20 4 2016 1 1 Optimal Oil Production in Iran: A Dynamic Programming Model 107 136 FA Seyed Hossein zonnoor shiraz university zonnoor@gmail.com N saeed matin shiraz university saeed.matin@ymail.com Y In this article we present a dynamic programming model for oil production in Iran. To this end, we represent our model in the form of a Bellman equation in which the function for discounted profit as the objective function is formulated as a Bellman equation, and hence is viewed as a dynamic programming problem.Specifically, in order to show the liquids flow in oil tanks, we use differential equations; we also examine the liquids flow in tanks and the effects of water and gas injection in oil tanks on the average production of oil wells, and the impact of increase in production from oil tanks on future production by analyzing oil tanks simulations, and then we derive a dynamic production function model as a restriction for our problem. Therefore, we interconnect the petroleum engineering models with the economic optimizing models. The results indicate that the optimal level of oil production in Iran is much higher than the actual level of production; and it implies that oil production is not merely influenced by economic issues, but is also affected by various factors, such as political issues. Moreover, we will focus on analyzing the effects of various discounting factors and expectations in the period of technological substitutions in oil market.  Optimal Trajectory of Oil Production, Dynamic Programming, Value-function, Iranian Economy, Natural Depletion. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1273-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1273-en.pdf
Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 20 4 2016 1 1 The Relationship between Quality of Education, Quality of Institutions, and Innovation in Environmental Technology 137 154 FA Seyed Farrokh Mustafavi Institute for Management and Planning Studies f.mostafavi@imps.ac.ir Y Innovation in environmental technology can play an important role in sustainable development. In this paper, the effects of quality of education and quality of political institutions on environmental innovation have been analyzed. The data that we have used are from the granted patents of 58 countries in 2013; and negative binomial models are used to analyze the data. The results indicate that the quality of education has a positive and significant relationship with innovation in environmental technology; but no significant effect for the quality of political institutions is found. Government expenditures on research and development on environment has also a positive and significant relationship with innovation in environmental technology, indicating that increase in such expenditures can increase environmental innovation. The results for the quality of political institutions could reflect market failure for environmental technology. Accordingly, government policies aimed for development of these technologies could provide a solution to this problem. Innovation, Patents, Environmental Technology, Quality of Education, Quality of Institutions, Negative Binomial Regression http://eprj.ir/article-1-1274-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1274-en.pdf
Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 20 4 2016 1 1 An Institutional Approach to Local Endogenous Development Planning 155 184 FA MohammdHossein Sharifzadegan Shahid Beheshti m-sharifzadegan@sbu.ac.ir N Behzad MalekpourAsl Shahid Beheshti b_malekpour@sbu.ac.ir Y Endogenous development, as a capability of a society in mobilizing domestic resources, along with the transition of traditional material economy to knowledge-based economy, have radically changed growth theories. The endogenous development, which originally was a guidance tactic for national decision makers and planners, has been attracting attentions in economic development at local level from the late 1990s. The main purpose of the article is to explain the endogenous development and to identify a new approach to endogenous development in the field of planning; these require us to identify the necessities to apply institutional approach. Henceforth, by analyzing the changes occurred in economic thoughts and the emergence of intuitionalism in development, and also by emphasizing the role pf endogenous development in these processes, the theoretical principles of traditional vs modern view to local development will be revealed. The findings indicate that employing the institutional approach in planning for endogenous development, advances the interactions between government and people, and improves bottom-up relations, and people’s control on government decisions; moreover, it helps to form an integral approach with regards to local development, which is the very aim of any endogenous development. Planning, Institutions, Institutional Approach, Development, Endogenous Development, Local Development. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1243-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1243-en.pdf
Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 20 4 2016 1 1 Exploring the Definition of Institution: Assessing Recent Alternative Approaches in Defining Institution 185 210 FA Mohammad Amir Rizvandi Tarbiat modares university m.rizvandi@modares.ac.ir N bahram sahabi Tarbiat modares university sahabi_b@modares.ac.ir Y farshad momeni Allameh Tabataba'i University farshad.momeni@gmail.com N kazem yavari Tarbiat modares university kyavari@modares.ac.ir N Although the scheme and foundation of institutionalism is based on the concept of institution, but there is no common understanding and definition of institution; in fact, with their fundamentally distinct perceptions and approaches, different theoreticians have defined institution in different ways. Therefore, through a descriptive-analytical method, the present study seeks to conceptually classify the definitions generally proposed after the revival of institutional economics by reviewing them. Most of the definitions proposed in recent decades may be classified under behavioral, equilibrium, structural, normative, and rule-oriented concepts. An assessment of the above said interpretations shows that structural and normative approaches regarding institution are defective expressions of the rule-oriented one, while behavioral and equilibrium definitions face problems such as lack of comprehensiveness, logical fallacy, mixing nature and capacity, weakness in expressing institutional changes and conflict with the assumptions of new institutionalism. Therefore, defining the institution as a rule, despite all criticisms pertaining to it, is preferred over other approaches.  Recent Approaches of Institutionalism, Definition of Institution, Rule, Norm, Structure, Behavior, Equilibrium http://eprj.ir/article-1-1303-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1303-en.pdf