Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 21 1 2016 4 1 Impact of Methods of Financing Government Expenditures on Economic Growth in Iran (Emphasizing the Oil and Tax Revenues) 3 21 FA ahmad jafari samimi University of Mazand jafarisa@yahoo.com Y jalal montazeri shoorekchali University of Mazand jalalmontazeri@gmail.com N Ayoub Khazaei University of Mazand akhazaei65@gmail.com N Government spending on public infrastructure, education and healthcare can provide a positive boost to economic growth, however each financing sources can affect economic growth differently. Which source of finance is less distortionary and boosts growth? In order to answer this question, this paper analyzes the impact of financing sources (oil and tax revenues) on the Iranian economic growth. To this, we use  the Smooth Transition Regression model (STR) and annual data during 1971 to 2011. We find that each source of finance, and the way it is used affects economic growth differently. Our findings support two threshold behaviors in the relationship between method of financing and economic growth in Iran. This estimated threshold was 21.74 percent of GDP for oil revenues and 5.67 percent of GDP for tax revenues. Whenever proportion of oil revenues in GDP is less than 21.74 percent, financing through oil revenues have positive effect and whenever it is more than 21.74 percent, financing through oil revenues has significant and negative effect on the economic growth. Furthermore, with threshold value 5.67 for proportion of tax revenues in GDP, in both regimes financing through tax revenues have positive effect on the economic growth. Finally, the findings suggest that using oil revenues for financing government expenditures must include significant restrictions, and it is highly suggested to be replaced by tax revenues. Political Finance, Oil Revenues, Tax Revenues, Government Expenditures, STR Model, Iran. http://eprj.ir/article-1-998-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-998-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 21 1 2016 4 1 Evaluating the Impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on Iran’s Market Share 23 56 FA Kowsar Yousefi Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Iran. k.yousefi@imps.ac.ir Y Fatemezahra Sobhani Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Iran. fzsobhani@gmail.com N Preferential trade agreements are a limited contract in which reciprocal tariff cuts are offered. Each party selects among its own exporting goods seeking for market share maximization and improving terms of trade. This study investigates the impact of Iran’s PTAs (with Bosnia, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tunisia). Results show that two PTAs with Cuba and Bosnia has had no impact on Iran’s market share, mainly due to the fact that these are not natural trade partners. The agreement with Kyrgyzstan and Tunisia has had a negative effect. The Pakistan-Iran PTA is the only one which causes more market share; the impact has been pronounced in 2011, when UN imposed sanctions on Iran. Results are robust to controlling aggregate shocks. Overall, based on the results of this study, Iran’s PTAs are of very limited impact. Future studies could address replacement trade policies, which effectively liberalize the export market while adding to the knowledge accumulation of Iranian trade negotiators. International Trading, Trade Pacts, Preferential Agreements, Difference in Difference, The Difference between the Three. http://eprj.ir/article-1-1328-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1328-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 21 1 2016 4 1 The Determinants of Inflation in Iran Based on : Bayesian Model Averaging(BA) and Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS) 57 82 FA mohsen mehrara teran university mmehrara@ut.ac.ir N reza ghobadzadeh institution for manageent and planning R.ghobadzadeh@imps.ac.ir Y In this research to show how 14 variables affect inflation in period 1974-2007, Bayesian model averaging and weighted average least square methods has been used. And also by using Vselect program optimal model for every independent variable has been identified. Results show that price index growth of imported goods is the main factor for inflation in Iran economic. In ranking this 14 factors –that achieved based on their probability for presence in the model-in turn price index growth of imported goods, GDP growth excluding oil group, lag liquidity are must effective factors.also Vselect results show that the most efficient model among every models that have an independent variable is the model that include price index growth of imported goods. Optimal model with two independent variable –include price index growth of imported goods , GDP growth excluding oil group and optimal model with tree independent variables include price index growth of imported goods , GDP growth excluding oil group, lag liquidity growth. Inflation, Iran economy, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS), Vselect programming. http://eprj.ir/article-1-993-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-993-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 21 1 2016 4 1 The Effect of Government Policies and Public Debt on Financial Development in Iran 83 104 FA behzad salmani tabriza university b_salmani@tabrizu.ac.ir N hossein asgharpour tabriza university h-asgharpur@tabrizu.ac.ir N salar jalilpour tabriza university salar.jalilpour@gmail.com Y Abstract Empirical studies have shown that financial development triggers economic growth through various ways, hence it is of primary importance to understand factors enhancing financial sector development. Based on economic literature, government plays a key role in financial sector development through his financial policies and budget structure. This study aims to investigate Iranian government role in financial sector development through 1973-2010, using time series data and ARDL co-integration approach. The data analysis revealed that public debt might exert a negative effects on financial sector development in Iran .empirical results also show that of the four past Iranian government regimes after Islamic revolution, all of them have had significant and supportive policies towards financial sector development although these policies had been stronger during the second and the forth ones. Financial Development, Government, Banks Credit, ARDL approach, Iran http://eprj.ir/article-1-959-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-959-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 21 1 2016 4 1 Strategic Interactions between a Fossil Fuel Cartel and a Coalition of Buyers:a Dynamic Approach 105 122 FA Mehdi Fadaee Department of Economics, Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran m.fadaee@imps.ac.ir Y Marzieh Motaffef Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran m.motaffef@yahoo.com N In this paper, we study the environmental consequences of fossil fuel extraction. In our model, there is a cartel of fossil fuel suppliers and a coalition of fossil fuel buyers. The cartel maximizes her profits without taking into account the negative environmental externalities of her productions. However, since consumers are suffered by environmental emissions of fossil fuels, the coalition implements strategies to reduce emissions which in turn decline the fossil fuel consumption. In such a setting, there is a conflict of interests; therefore, the cartel and the coalition play a simultaneous strategic game to maximize their objective functions. An important result of the game is the existence of two different steady states. One with the resource exhausted and the other with positive reserves significantly far from zero. Fossil fuels, Environmental pollution, Fossil fuel cartel, Buyers coalition, Dynamic game http://eprj.ir/article-1-1355-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-1355-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 21 1 2016 4 1 Comparative evaluation of productivity, before and after privatization By using added value productivity model 123 143 FA reza khaleghi Azad University r.khaleghi@yahoo.com Y ali akbar pourmousa Azad University alipourmousa@ut.ac.ir N Privatization has been one of the most important aspects of the economic transition from a Centralized economy to a market economy In order to have maximum productivity. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence suggests an effective performance incentive mechanism and corporate governance, and increase their productivity if the lack of government interference. In this study, after identifying privatization purpose in Iran, we By using value- added productivity model, evaluate Total productivity, production resource productivity (Labor، material، capital) and performance productivity (Sales/employment، profit /employment ) effects associated with privatization of state-owned enterprises, in five year’s pre and post privatization. The results show, privatization of state-owned enterprises from 1994 to 2011 through stock exchange, dosn’t not increased total productivity. Also, from the resource productivity approach, privatization, increases the labor productivity but don’t increase materials and capital productivity. From the performance productivity approach, only increase Sales/employment and doesn’t increase profit /employment. Keywords: privatization, productivity, By privatization enterprises, value- added productivity model. privatization, productivity, privatizated enterprises, added value productivity model. http://eprj.ir/article-1-720-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-720-en.pdf