Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 27 2 2022 9 1 External Shocks, Exchange Rate Changes, and Intermediate Goods: Explanation of Stagflation in Iranian Economy 3 50 FA Shahbod Seighalani Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran, shahbod.seighalani@gmail.com Y Seyed Ahmadreza Jalali-Naini Department of Economics, Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran. a.jalali@imps.ac.ir N Nasser Khiabani Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran naser.khiabani@atu.ac.ir N 10.52547/jpbud.27.2.3 Explanation of economic cycles, especially stagflation in an oil-dependent economy with high dependency on imported intermediate goods, requires a prototypical representation of the supply side and the propagation mechanism of the external shocks. In commodity-exporting countries, exchange rate changes are often caused by exogenous changes in the terms of trade. Apart from this, external shocks such as international sanctions, restricting foreign trade and increasing transaction costs, not only affect external relative prices but also disrupt the supply chain, thus can be a very strong source of economic cycles or stagflation episodes. External shocks modify investment decisions regarding domestic and foreign assets, significantly affect household consumption and hence the demand side of the economy. Where the final product is highly dependent on imported intermediate goods, negative foreign shocks (i.e. sanctions) can disrupt the supply chain, via the imported intermediate goods channel, and affect output supply price. Therefore, the transmission mechanism of the external shocks in an economy with the above features requires appropriate modeling of both the demand and supply sides. As to explain the observed episodes of stagflation in the Iran’s economy, we expand the supply side of a typical new Keynesian DSGE model by presenting and separating imported and domestic intermediate goods in the production function as components of the supply chain, introducing an extra channel for the impact of external shocks on output, inflation, and consumption. DSGE Models, Stagflation, Intermediate Goods, Exchange Rate, Supply Chain, Iran. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2133-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2133-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 27 2 2022 9 1 Financial Inclusion and Monetary Policy in Iran 51 88 FA Alireza Fardhariri Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Iran. alirezahariri@ut.ac.ir Y 0000-0002-2848-5658 Ali Taiebnia Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Iran. taiebnia@ut.ac.ir N 0000-0003-0171-5932 Hossein Tavakolian Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Iran. hossein.tavakolian@atu.ac.ir N 0000-0002-7513-6282 10.52547/jpbud.27.2.51 The present study investigated the effectiveness of monetary policy and its consequences for financially included and excluded households using a calibrated new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) for Iran. The impulse response function analysis suggests that although a significant part of the population is financially excluded (about 45%), the contractionary monetary policy shock significantly reduces inflation and GDP. In addition, a contractionary monetary policy decreases the consumption of financially excluded households more than that of financially included households, because financially included households can absorb this shock due to access to financial instruments (services) and can, therefore, smooth their consumption more effectively than financially excluded households. The comparison of the results obtained from our model with the full financial inclusion model suggests that expansionary monetary policy in full financial inclusion leads to higher output growth with lower inflation costs. Therefore, efforts to ensure full financial inclusion are recommended so that monetary policy can fully achieve its goals. DSGE, Financial Inclusion, Financially Excluded, Financially Included, Monetary Policy. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2085-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2085-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 27 2 2022 9 1 The Effect of Sectoral Sanctions on Price Returns of Targeted Firms: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange 89 125 FA Kia Nazifi Fard Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran. N Ali Motavasseli Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran. a.motavasseli@imps.ac.ir Y 0000-0003-1483-8421 10.52547/jpbud.27.2.89 In this paper, an empirical study has been conducted to document the effects of US sector-specific sanctions on publicly-traded firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The withdrawal of the US from JCPOA on May 8th, 2018 is considered the main event, and the GARCH (1, 1) model has been utilized along with the OLS estimation of a market model for the estimation of abnormal returns within 11 working days following the event. A multifactor statistical model of expected returns is also considered for controlling the potential effects of the changes in the foreign exchange rate and the risk-free rate of return on the abnormal returns of different firms. The potential effect of size, profitability, and leverage for each firm on the relationship between cumulative abnormal returns and being the target of sector-specific sanctions has been controlled. The results showed that the withdrawal of the US from JCPOA induces a two-day cumulative abnormal return of about -1% for the firms which operate in industries targeted by US sectoral sanctions compared to non-target firms. The effect remains significant for about two weeks. Similarly, the effect of Trump's victory in the presidential election in 2016 on targeted firms is estimated to be significant. Other events in which Trump has speculated about the chance of withdrawal from the JCPOA have no significant effect on the stock market. Event Study, Sectoral Sanction, JCPOA, Abnormal Return, Asset Pricing, Market Model, Multi-Factor Model. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2120-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2120-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 27 2 2022 9 1 Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Development on Income Inequality in Iran: Using Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Approach 127 152 FA Yaser Pakdaman Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran. yaser.pakdaman@atu.ac.ir N Ahmad Barkish Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran. a.barkish@imps.ac.ir N Mohammadreza Akhavan Arij Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran 100075@mporg.ir Y 10.52547/jpbud.27.2.127 The relationship between financial development and income inequality is one of the topics that has been the focus of researchers and economic policymakers since the 1990s; hence extensive empirical studies attempt to determine the type of effect of financial development on income inequality in the world. In Iran, in recent decades, studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of financial development on income inequality within the framework of the inverted U hypothesis and linear relationships between these indicators. In the present study, the asymmetric and non-linear effects of financial development on income inequality for the period 2013-2016 have been investigated. The current research method is organized in the category of applied research, and for this purpose, the NARDL model has been used; the use of this approach is the distinguishing feature of the present study compared to other studies conducted in Iran. The results show that financial development has a negative relationship with income inequality in Iran, and this relationship is consistent with the inequality reduction hypothesis. Also, the existence of long-term asymmetric effects has been confirmed in the model, so increasing and decreasing the financial development of income inequality in the long term bears different statistical effects. Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Financial Development on Income Inequality in Iran: Using Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Approach http://eprj.ir/article-1-2059-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2059-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 27 2 2022 9 1 The Effect of Income Inequality on the Probability of Banking Tensions in Iran 153 173 FA Mohammad Abdi Seyyedkolaee Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran m.abdi.sk@umz.ac.ir Y Shahryar Zaroki Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran sh.zaroki@umz.ac.ir N Kosar Ebrahimi Kelarijani Adib-Mazandaran Higher Education Institute, Sary, Iran. N 10.52547/jpbud.27.2.153 Banking tension is one of the major problems in developed and developing countries nowadays. Therefore, researchers and policymakers pay decisive attention to the probability of banking tension. Meanwhile, the debate over the impact of income distribution on the banking sector and the occurrence of the banking crisis has escalated, so that in recent years, it seems that income inequality can be the cause of financial crises. Accordingly, the present study has designed a stress index for the banking system of Iran's economy. To study the effect of income inequality on the probability of banking tensions in Iran, quarterly data 1999:1-2020:4 and Markov rotational model were used. The results showed that the banking system in Iran's economy had been in a state of high tension for some periods. Finally, by estimating the Probit model, it was found that with the unequal distribution of income in Iran's economy, the probability of tension in the banking sector increases. In addition, inflation and real interest rate have a positive effect, and economic growth has a negative effect, on the likelihood of banking tension.   Banking Tension, Income Distribution, Iran's Economy, Probit Model, Markov Rotation Pattern. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2054-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2054-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 27 2 2022 9 1 Two-Stage Model of Dry Port Location Using Hub Location Problem and Cost Function 175 191 FA Niloofar Dezhsetan Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran. N Mehrdad Alimoradi Department of Systems Planning and Economic Sciences, Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran, m.alimoradi@imps.ac.ir Y 0000-0003-4118-3184 Babak Farhang Moghaddam Department of Systems Planning and Economic Sciences, Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran farhang@imps.ac.ir N 10.52547/jpbud.27.2.175 In recent years the increase in the quantity of cargo in the main ports of Iran has finally led to the development and establishment of dry ports in the country. Among the important advantages of the dry ports are: reducing the sedimentation of goods, increasing the share of rail transport and reducing road traffic, reducing the costs of transporting container cargo, and speeding up customs operations. The establishment of a dry port requires facilities and equipment for the entry and clearance of goods, changing the type of transportation, warehouse spaces, and customs operations, the cost of which varies according to the capacity level. This article is written to locate dry ports for Shahid Rajaei and Imam ports. The location of the dry port was modeled based on the location of the hub and the cost function, and because it is mixed linear programming, it has been solved by the exact simplex algorithm method. The optimum location of the dry port for Rajaei and Imam ports was done once separately for each and once again in a combined form. According to the results, the smaller the volume and dispersion of cargo origins/ destinations, the less the need for a dry port and the more optimal the use of the capacity of the main ports. Accordingly, the optimal possible state for Rajaei port is to use 37% of its capacity and for Imam port, it is 74%. The multiplicity of dry ports with greater spatial distribution in the country is more beneficial for the users. If the problem is solved for all ports in the country, due to the 90% share of Rajaei port in attracting container cargo, the optimal places for the construction of the dry port will be Aprin and the special economic zone of Sirjan, and the load between the mentioned hubs and the main port will be proportional to the cost of transportation. That is, the optimal dry port of Bandar Rajaei can be generalized to the macro scale of the country due to its significant role in the share of container cargo. Dry Port, Hub Location, Shahid Rajaei Port, Imam Khomeini Port, Mixed Linear Programming, Simplex Method. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2144-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2144-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 27 2 2022 9 1 Designing a Performance-based Budgeting Model with a Systematic and Mixed Approach 193 228 FA Mohammad Solgi Department of Islamic Financial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Imam Hossein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran kpmsolgi@ihu.ac.ir Y 0000-0002-8635-631x Farhad Golmorasa Faculty of Management and Economics, Imam Hossein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran f.gol2021@ihu.ac.ir N Sajjad Shamsi Gooshki Department of Business and Administrative Management,Faculty of Management and Accounting, University of Tehran, Farabi Campus, Qom, Iran Sajadshams@ut.ac.ir N 10.52547/jpbud.27.2.193 Performance-based budgeting helps organizations establish a key link between budgeting and organizational performance. Accordingly, this approach can be used in various organizations. The purpose of this study is to design a budgeting model based on the performance and evaluation of the current budgeting system in the public sector from the perspective of experts and managers in the field of budgeting. In the qualitative part of the statistical population, including experts in the field of public finance, a statistical sample of 8 of these individuals was selected using the purposive-judgmental sampling method. In the qualitative part, first by examining the current models and content analysis method, the conceptual model of the research was extracted and then to localize and saturate the conceptual model, the selected sample was interviewed. A small part of the statistical population includes managers and experts of the executive apparatus, who are selected using available sampling of a sample of 43 of these people; the Questionnaire is a data collection tool and the structural modeling method is a data analysis method in this section. The results showed that in the performance model of performance-based budgeting, input dimensions (requirements) include organizational structure, organizational culture, management style, transformational leadership, and change management; moreover, the main processes include planning, performance management, and accounting system (activity-based costing) and the output consists of optimal resource allocation, effective monitoring, and control. The results of the evaluation of the measurement and structural model of the research indicate the validity and reliability of the model, the confirmation of the structural relations, and the optimal measurement and fit of the model.   Public Finance, Budgeting, Performance Based Budgeting, Optimal Resource Allocation, Systems Approach. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2073-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2073-en.pdf