Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 1 2025 5 1 The Relative Contribution of Macroeconomic Shocks to Inflation Volatility in Iran: Evidence from a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with an Interest‑Rate Corridor Mechanism 3 44 OTHER Hossein Tavakolian Hossein.Tavakolian@atu.ac.ir Y 10.66224/jepr.30.1.3 This study quantifies the relative importance of the main categories of macroeconomic shocks in explaining Iranian inflation over 1989:Q2 – 2025:Q1. A small-open-economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model is estimated that identifies four structural disturbances-supply-side, aggregate-demand, monetary-policy shocks, and shocks to household wealth driven by equity-market fluctuations -while embedding the institutional features of Iran’s dual monetary–exchange-rate framework. Forecast-error-variance decompositions show that supply shocks account for 55 percent of one-quarter-ahead inflation volatility, rising to 63 percent at the one-year horizon. Demand shocks explain 22 percent in the short run and less than 15 percent in the longer run, whereas the contribution of monetary-policy shocks declines from 18 percent (one quarter) to roughly 10 percent (three years). Asset-wealth shocks related to the equity market never exceed 5 percent. Two episodes—2011-2013 and 2018 onward—when oil-export constraints and sharp currency depreciations coincided, register the highest supply-side shares. The results imply that achieving durable single-digit inflation in Iran is unlikely without a credible foreign-exchange buffer and a rehabilitated banking sector, because supply-driven shocks quickly propagate to consumer prices through the exchange-rate and cost-push channels.   supply shocks, aggregate demand, interbank-rate corridor, monetary policy, DSGE model, Iran. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2395-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2395-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 1 2025 5 1 Gender Wage Gap in Iran Considering Sample Selection Bias due to Low Female Participation 45 80 FA Mina Javid Institute for Planning Studies N Ali Mazyaki Economcis Department, Allameh Tabataba'i University mazyaki@atu.ac.ir Y 10.66224/jepr.30.1.45 This study examines the gender wage gap in the Iranian labor market. One of the main challenges in this area is the low economic participation rate of women, which results in the lack of wage data for many of them. This issue prevents the true characteristics of women’s labor force supply from being accurately reflected in the data. To address this sample selection bias, a two-step Heckman model is employed, incorporating variables affecting the decision to participate in the first stage equation. The findings indicate that a gender wage gap exists to the disadvantage of women; however, accounting for sample selection bias reduces this gap. Thus, part of the observed gap is due to the sample selection error caused by the low economic participation of women. Furthermore, the results show that the wage gap in self-employment is significantly higher than in wage-based employment, and there is essentially no wage gap in the public sector. On the other hand, the gender wage gap has a direct relationship with experience and an inverse relationship with education level. Additionally, the greatest wage gap is observed in middle-level occupations. Regarding industry sectors, the gap is larger in industry than in agriculture, and the smallest gap is found in the services sector.   Gender wage gap, Female labor participation, Sample selection bias, Heckit model. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2368-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2368-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 1 2025 5 1 Measuring the sources of economic growth in Tehran province during the sanctions period; With a productivity approach 81 127 FA Alireza Amini Islamic central Tehran branch aramini2005@gmail.com Y Alaedin Ezoji Planning and Budget Organization alaezo@gmail.com N 10.66224/jepr.30.1.81 The growth and development of regions are influenced by the relationships among local, intra-regional, and inter-regional economic sectors, as well as by capacities and economies that differ somewhat at the national level. In the 2010s, despite international economic sanctions, Tehran experienced higher economic growth compared to the country. The average economic growth of this province was 3.1 percent, with 64.1 percent of that growth attributed to improvements in total factor productivity, while at the national level, productivity did not play a role in economic growth. From another perspective, 29.5 percent of Tehran's economic growth came from increased labor utilization, 6.4 percent from greater capital use, 12.1 percent from labor productivity growth, and 52 percent from enhanced capital productivity. These factors highlight the key role of productivity in the province's economic growth. Financial, economic, demographic capacities, specialized human resources, and access to markets have enabled Tehran's economy to remain strong even under sanctions and to utilize its capacities more effectively. The findings of this study provide insights that are significant for national, regional, and even local policymaking. The innovation of this study lies in improving the estimation of capital stock and identifying sources of economic growth, with an emphasis on agglomeration economies that distinguish Tehran from other regions.   Total Factor Productivity, Labor Productivity, Capital Productivity, Technological Progress, Agglomeration Economies and Economies of Scale, Tehran Province. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2316-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2316-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 1 2025 5 1 Life cycle effects on consumption share of income regimes: a Markov switching approach 129 157 FA moslem Ansarinasab Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Vali-e-Asr University, Rafsanjan M.Ansarinasab@vru.ac.ir Y najmeh bidmal International economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman najmeh.bydmal@yahoo.com N 10.66224/jepr.30.1.129 Two key concepts in microeconomic theory and economic development are consumption and income. On the other hand, the age structure of the population is an important and effective factor in the formation of national savings and consumption. In this regard, this research examines the dynamics of the effect of population structure on life cycle consumption (testing Modigliani's hypothesis). In order to investigate the effect of the share of young and old people on the average desire to consume in Iran in the period from 1960 to 2021, the Markov switching model has been used. The results of this model are as follows: per capita income in both regimes had a negative effect on consumption share of income (APC). In the regime, a positive and significant relationship between the variable of population growth and the consumption share of income has been observed, but this relationship is estimated to be negative and insignificant in the regime. The age share variable (below 14 years) has a negative and insignificant effect on the consumption share of income in both regimes. The age share variable (over 64 years old) has had a negative and insignificant effect in the regime of one (high consumption) and a positive and significant effect in the regime of two (low consumption) on the consumption share of income. The results of this study clearly show that the share of non-working age has a positive effect on the consumption share of income. Therefore, considering the positive effect of income and population growth in increasing consumption, it is recommended that the country's macroeconomic policy makers pay special attention to these two variables in the country's macro planning. Also, since the results showed that the age share variable (below 14 years) did not have a significant effect on consumption, but the age share (above 64 years) had a negative and significant effect on consumption in Iran.   Age Share Under 14 Years, Age Share above 64 Years, Life Cycle Consumption, Markov Switching Model, Dynamics. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2226-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2226-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 1 2025 5 1 Estimation of leisure cost function of Iranianurban household 159 173 FA Hamideh Torabi Department Of Management and Accounting, Technical and Vocational University (TVU), Tehran, Iran h-torabi@tvu.ac.ir Y Mohammad Parsaiyan Member of the academic staff of ACECR mp.iqna@gmail.com N MohammadSadegh Alipour Department Of Smart Marketing and Business Studies, Research Centre for Resource Management and knowledge-based Business Studies msalipour@hotmail.com N 10.66224/jepr.30.1.159 The family is considered as the most important pillar and social environment for spending leisure time, but due to the lack of planning and efficient allocation of resources, it is exposed to opportunity burnout or psychological and social damage. In the statistical plan of household income and expenses of Iran Statistics Center, the average expenses and income of urban and rural households are estimated at the level of the country and provinces. The importance of this project is in studying the mutual relations of the socio-economic characteristics of households. The purpose of this article is to estimate the leisure expenditure demand function of households in urban areas of the country based on the latest data of 1401. In order to realize this problem, the influence of factors such as age, literacy level, gender, marital status and household head's facilities on household leisure expenditure was investigated and the coefficients of the multiple regression model were estimated with econometric tools. According to the results of the model, male-headed households spend less on leisure activities than female-headed households; Also, married guardians spend less money on leisure activities compared to single guardians. Owning a house and a private car is also effective in spending money on leisure activities Household expenditure and income, household socioeconomic characteristics, leisure, econometrics. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2323-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2323-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 1 2025 5 1 A Framework for the Sustainability of Banking Services with a focus on 4th Generation Technologies 175 201 FA Abdolhamid Malekpour Qom branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom malekpour.hamid56@gmail.com N Seyed Hadi Arabi University of Qom hadiarabi@gmail.com Y Hossein Jahangirnia Qom branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom hosein_jahangirnia@yahoo.com N Mohammad Reza Pourfakharan Qom branch, Islamic Azad University, Qom free.domain@mihanmail.ir N 10.66224/jepr.30.1.175 The current research seeks to identify and prioritize factors affecting the sustainability of banking services. In terms of methodology, the current research is a mixed study and its orientation is applied. The theoretical population of the research is the managers and consultants of the banking industry. Sampling was done as a judgment based on expertise in the fields of fourth generation industry technologies and banking sustainability. At first, 26 factors were obtained through ultrasynthesis. These codes were classified in the form of six main factor categories. The main factors were: good governance, sustainable financing, social responsibility, open innovation, green banking services and collaborative culture. Next, sub-factors were screened by fuzzy Delphi method. Nine factors had a defuzzy number higher than 0.7 and were selected for final evaluation. The screened factors were evaluated by the Marcos method and based on the experts' expertise, importance, and degree of certainty. Experts' opinions were collected in a range of 10. The priority factors were: the bank's pioneering in the transfer and implementation of fourth generation technologies in various sectors, the bank's cooperation with various fintechs, strengthening the banks' expertise in the field of evaluating economic plans through cooperation with fintechs and investment and strategic partnership with financing fintechs to create new financing methods.   Sustainability, Banking Industry, Banking Services, Technology, Fourth Generation Technologies http://eprj.ir/article-1-2285-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2285-en.pdf