Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 4 2026 3 1 A Review of the Non-Fundamental Shocks Problem in SVAR Analysis 3 42 FA Nasser Khiabani Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Alameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran. naser.khiabani@atu.ac.ir N Shalaleh Sahafi Ph.D. Student, Institute of Planning Education and Research, Tehran, Iran. shalaleh@gmail.com Y Classic SVAR analyses, either explicitly or implicitly, are based on the assumption that structural shocks belong to the vector space formed by a limited number of observable variables and can be identified through the historical data analysis of these variables. If this assumption is violated, the information obtained from such analyses will not be sufficient to serve as a basis for evaluating the validity of theoretical models or structural analyses. This issue is known as the non-fundamental shocks problem. In the present study, by reviewing the relevant literature, we will address the core of the non-fundamental shocks problem, the reasons behind its occurrence, and the methods to resolve it. Non-Fundamental Shocks, Information Deficiency, News Shocks, Noise, Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR). http://eprj.ir/article-1-2246-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2246-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 4 2026 3 1 Banking System Challenges, Risk Accumulation in the Banking Network, Credit Crunch and its Real Effects - A Review of the Literature and Evidence from Iran 43 106 FA Seyyed Ahmadreza Jalali Naeini Professor, Department of Economics and Systems, Institute for Management and Planning Studies (IMPS), Tehran, Iran. a.jalali@imps.ac.ir Y Soroush Bagheri Ph.D. Student of Economics, Institute for Management and Planning Studies (IMPS), Tehran, Iran. Bagherisoroush@gmail.com N Statistical evidence from the Iranian economy indicates that the banking system has been significantly affected by macroeconomic cycles driven by exogenous shocks, particularly terms-of-trade fluctuations and economic sanctions. These shocks have intensified long-standing banking sector problems, including adverse selection and moral hazard. The condition of banks’ balance sheets has been further weakened by illicit practices, risk concentration through connected lending, and deficiencies in lending procedures. The lack of effective monitoring and regulatory oversight has contributed to the persistence and deepening of balance-sheet imbalances. As a result, high levels of non-performing and rescheduled loans have become structural characteristics of the banking system. At the same time, the accumulation of illiquid assets - particularly in bank-owned holding companies and real estate investments - has expanded considerably. In addition, increasing claims on the government have intensified banks’ cash-flow constraints and balance-sheet pressures. Collectively, these developments have not only weakened banking soundness indicators but have also substantially reduced the banking system’s ability to fulfill its essential role in credit provision and financial intermediation. This article reviews the major challenges facing Iran’s banking system in light of the relevant theoretical literature. It also examines empirical evidence on risk accumulation and credit crunch conditions within the Iranian banking sector and evaluates their implications for the real economy. Macro-Financial Linkages, Oil Shocks, Banking Soundness, Credit Crunch http://eprj.ir/article-1-2419-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2419-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 4 2026 3 1 A Comparative Study of the Impact of Government Higher Education Expenditures and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Higher Education Indicators in Post-Revolutionary Development Programs 107 141 FA Heshmatullah Asgari Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economic, University of Ilam, Ilam, Iran. heshmatolah.asgari@atu.ac.ir Y Ali Moridian Ph.D. Student of Economics, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran. N Masoumeh Motallebi Ph.D. Student of Economics, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran. N As a public good, higher education is largely financed by governments, making its development highly dependent on public financial support. Under conditions of heightened economic uncertainty and constrained government budgetary resources, the level and effectiveness of public investment in higher education may be affected, particularly with respect to qualitative outcomes. This study examines the impact of government expenditures on both quantitative and qualitative indicators of higher education across development programs implemented after the Islamic Revolution, while accounting for economic policy uncertainty. To this end, a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is employed. The results indicate that government expenditures, including both current spending and capital asset acquisition, have improved the selected higher education indicators—namely, the student-to-population ratio and the faculty-to-student ratio—across all post-revolutionary development programs. However, incorporating economic policy uncertainty into the analysis weakens these positive relationships. Furthermore, although government expenditures continue to exert a positive effect on the faculty-to-student ratio in the three most recent development programs, the magnitude of this effect has steadily declined, raising concerns regarding its future sustainability.   Higher Education, Cost Credits, Asset Acquisition Credits, Foreign Investment, Urbanization Rate, Economic Policy Uncertainty. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2272-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2272-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 4 2026 3 1 Economic Sanctions and Investment in Iran: Evidence of Asymmetric Effects 143 187 FA Mahdi Gholampour Fordoei Ph.D. of Student Economics, Department of Economic, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. m.gholampour@semnan.ac.ir Y Esmaiel Abounoori Professor, Department of Economic, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. esmaiel.abounoori@semnan.ac.ir N Teymour Mohammadi Professor, Department of Theoretical Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. mohammadi@atu.ac.ir N Investment is a critical driver of economic growth; however, investment levels in Iran have exhibited a declining trend in recent years. Economic sanctions, as instruments of political and economic pressure, exert wide-ranging effects on the national economy, the business environment, and investment activity. This study investigates the asymmetric effects of economic sanctions on investment in Iran. To measure sanctions, the study employs the novel sanctions index developed by Laudati and Pesaran (2023). Constructed through systematic content analysis of major international newspapers, this index provides a quantitative measure of the intensity of sanctions imposed on Iran and closely reflects key historical episodes of sanction escalation. Using quarterly data from 2009 to 2023 and applying the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, the study examines the asymmetric relationship between sanctions and investment. The findings reveal that investment responds asymmetrically to sanctions: the imposition of sanctions exerts a significant negative effect on investment, whereas the easing of sanctions has no statistically significant impact. In addition, economic growth positively influences investment, while interest rates also exhibit asymmetric effects. The study’s primary contribution lies in combining the NARDL methodology with a novel sanctions index, enabling a more realistic assessment of investment behavior under sanction conditions.   Iran, Economic Sanctions, Investment, Asymmetric Effects, Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (NARDL). http://eprj.ir/article-1-2384-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2384-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 4 2026 3 1 Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in Iran: Evidence from Disaggregated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 189 218 FA Zhale Zarei Assistant Professor, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Tehran, Iran. zhalezarei@gmail.com Y Ilnaz Ebrahimi Assistant Professor, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Tehran, Iran. N Maryam Hemmati Assistant Professor, Monetary and Banking Research Institute N The purpose of this article is to evaluate and compare the effects of fiscal and credit policy on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, the fiscal and credit policy Multipliers have been estimated using annual data (during the period of 1357-1400) and the generalized method of moments (GMM). Also, the fiscal and credit policy Multipliers in sub-sectors of GDP have also been estimated. The model has also been estimated separately for government current and construction expenditures. The results show that the fiscal policy multiplier (2.47) is greater than the multiplier of credit policy (1.48). Also, fiscal policy had the greatest effect on the oil sector and the least on the agriculture sector, and this multiplier coefficient was not statistically significant among the industries and mines and agriculture sectors. The credit policy multiplier has been larger in the two sectors of services and industries and mines compared to other sectors, and this coefficient was not statistically significant in the oil sector. This study shows that the effects of credit policy are lower compared to the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth. This means that credit policies as one of the important tools have not significantly increased the economic growth in Iran. Therefore, it seems that monitoring the allocation of credits should be the most important concern of the monetary policy maker.   Fiscal Policy, Credit Policy, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Disaggregated Gross Domestic Product (GDP). http://eprj.ir/article-1-2301-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2301-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 30 4 2026 3 1 The Role of Credit Cards in Money Velocity 219 250 FA Zahra Khoshnoud Assisstant Professor, Monetary & Banking Research Institute, Tehran, Iran. z.khoshnoud@mbri.ac.ir Y Marzieh Esfandiari Credit Specialist, Supply Chain Finance Department, The Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, Iran m.fandiari@gmail.com N The issuance of credit cards as a payment instrument in the banking sector has increased significantly over the past decade, supported by improvements in the necessary regulatory and operational infrastructures. In addition, the Central Bank’s recent policy of quantitatively controlling banks’ balance sheets, while encouraging the expansion of off-balance-sheet activities, has led banks to increase the supply of credit cards. Consequently, the growing acceptance of credit cards as a means of payment is expected to influence money velocity, with potential implications for inflation and the effectiveness of the Central Bank’s inflation-targeting framework. To investigate this issue, the determinants of money velocity - measured in terms of M0, M1, and M2 - are examined using monthly data from February 2018 to October 2024 and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). In addition to the volume of credit card transactions, the model incorporates the interbank interest rate as an indirect monetary policy instrument, along with the market exchange rate, inflation rate, and the total volume of debit card transactions as account-based payment instruments. The results indicate that the expansion of credit card usage during the sample period has exerted a negative long-run effect on different measures of money velocity, suggesting the limited use of credit cards in real transactions. Therefore, by influencing money velocity, the expansion of this payment instrument may pose challenges to the Central Bank’s inflation-targeting policy, which relies on the relative stability of this variable. Money Velocity, Inflation Targeting, Payment Instrument, Credit Card, Cash Card. http://eprj.ir/article-1-2304-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-2304-en.pdf