Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 2 2002 7 1 Integrated National Welfare and Social Security System Establishment Blueprint 3 31 FA Mohamad Satarifar Y The history of human societies has been and will be concomitant with concerns such as hunger, unemployment, poverty, disability, losing parents, accidents and catastrophes, being stranded, health and medical care needs. These concerns and the like have become the focus of serious attention of individuals, societies, governments, parties as well as diverse intellectual tendencies and value systems during the previous centuries and early stages of 21st century. Therefore, despite the fact that governments and political rules had different mandates, they felt bound to set up principles, institutions, structures and mechanisms as social security system to meet these human and social needs. Concisely reviewing historical precedents of global social security systems, social security status in Iran and its present shortcomings, the paper analyses groundwork for integrated national welfare and social security system establishment and its basic requirements. Eventually, it introduces “National Social Security System Organizational Structure” bill proposed by Management and Planning Organization. http://eprj.ir/article-1-234-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-234-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 2 2002 7 1 Pinpointing the most Pivotal Factors of Income Distribution Inequality Increase in Iran’s Rural & Urban Areas: Gini Coefficient Analysis (1991; 1996) 33 52 FA Ali-Hossein Samadi Y In all researches conducted on Iran’s economy, the researchers have paid focal attention to Gini coefficient calculations, its trend analysis and the impact of macroeconomic variables on income distribution. Some have tried Cozentes hypothesis. The shortcomings of the previous studies are in the areas of pinpointing inequality increase or decrease factors (not just their share of the whole inequality) and expressing the causes of inequality reduction over time by means of determining the composing elements. The paper tries to overcome the above- mentioned deficiency. For this purpose, the paper uses Gini coefficient analysis technique by means of income factors recommended by Yao (1997) and information gathered from urban and rural areas in 1991 and 1996. The results show that income distribution inequality was reduced in these years though the causes were different on both urban and rural areas. Inequality increase or decrease factors in urban and rural areas have been different, yet they have not changed over time. According to the conclusions, it is cautiously recommended that special attention be paid to inequality reducing factors in poverty reduction policies in urban and rural areas separately. http://eprj.ir/article-1-235-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-235-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 2 2002 7 1 Analyzing Effective Factors on Economic Sectors’ Labor Demand and Employment Projections in the 3rd Development Plan 53 86 FA Alireza Amini Y The paper tries to analyze effective factors on labor force demand in 14 economic sectors. It uses a dynamic model that is in accord with incomplete competition situations. The results of the study show that production, real costs of labor and capital respectively put heaviest effects on labor force demand. Production variable has a positive and significant effect on employment in all economic sectors except for commerce, restaurants and hotels ownership. Real costs of labor use have negative and significant effect on employment in all economic sectors. Nevertheless, real costs of capital had significant effect on labor demand in three sectors, yet the effect on three other sectors were positive and significant. At last, there was a negative and significant effect on the last eight sectors. Accordingly, labor and capital are substitutable in three sectors and complementary in eight sectors though the extent looks blurred and not easily comprehensible. Briefly, the policy of reducing capital real costs has far less positive effect on labor demand than labor real cost reduction policy. The study results inform that Iran’s 3rd development plan objectives on employment can not be materialized unless either production and investment growth rates exceed those of 3rd development plan projections or the real costs of labor are dramatically cut. http://eprj.ir/article-1-236-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-236-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 2 2002 7 1 Mixed Income Importance and its Linkage with Sectors’ Employment Capacity in the Semi-Matrix Social Accounting 87 120 FA Ali-Asghar Banou’i Y Mina Mahmoudi N Due to restrictions in socioeconomic analyses of sector and macro accounting systems and so as to satisfy the need to consistent and integrated statistics on modern economic development visions during last three decades, the researches used middle accounting system patterns to overcome the shortcomings. The way of considering household consumption and income in the most detailed form and linking it to income distribution, employment and population are some of the fundamental applications of these patterns. According to accounting logic, the sum of all entries (incomes) in any account should be equal to that of consumption in an accounting period. Input-output table can show income-consumption equality in productive activities. However, this equality can not be pragmatically ensured for household in sector and macro accounting systems. Balancing household income and consumption can be practiced merely through certain assumptions in line with productive activities. Applying these assumptions while neglecting mixed income considered in operational surplus brings about limitations in income distribution and in its linkage to employment in sectors. Mixed income calculations and its linkage to income distribution and to employment have stayed enigmatic. The paper is based on 10 scenarios in the context of social accounting semi-matrix system as well as on their comparison with accounting system input-output table. Household income-consumption balancing, mixed income calculation, geographical location, households’ interactions, and their linkage with sectors’ potential employment capacity are the items studied in the scenarios. The study results inform that four scenarios (out of ten) have necessary conditions for quantitative analyses but lack sufficient condition because of ignoring mixed income importance in sectors’ employment capacity. Thus, there are two scenarios with both necessary and sufficient conditions that can be used in quantitative analyses of sectors’ employment capacity. http://eprj.ir/article-1-238-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-238-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 2 2002 7 1 Analyzing Government’s Budget Reactions to Shocks Given to Production, Government’s Revenues and Expenditure through VEC Model 121 148 FA Esfandyar Jahangard Y Alireza Farhady N Financial policy efficiency depends on the right proportions and composition of financial policy tools i.e. governmental revenues and expenditure as well as their flexibility and influence on economic goals. In Iran’s economy, factors like governmental budget dependence on petroleum incomes and inflexibility of government expenses have made financial policies inefficient. This, in turn, has made the budget less flexible in the face of shocks received from petroleum income changes. In the framework of correct financial policies, budget management plays a facilitating role in absorbing the shocks from governmental revenue changes in the budget and in the whole economy as a result. The paper tries to examine budgetary reactions to the shocks given to the government’s revenues, expenditures and production. To this end, the paper analyzes the impact of these shocks given to the government’s revenues (tax & non-tax), expenditures and production during the period between 1961- 1999 by means of Richardo Equality theory and Vector Auto- Regressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models. In the end, referring to the results of the study, the paper offers suggestions on policy making. http://eprj.ir/article-1-237-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-237-en.pdf