Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 3 2002 9 1 Analyzing the Shock Impacts of Production, Price Levels, Foreign Exchange and Money on Iran’s Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Structural Vector Autoregression 3 33 FA Mahmoud Khataie Y Davood Daneshjafari N Considering the results of their previous research in 2000, when the shock impacts of production, price levels and money on Iran’s macroeconomic variables such as growth national product (GDP) and price levels were studied, the authors began examining the subject in the open economy. Hence, they entered a new variable i.e. foreign exchange into the model. Having expounded on the model, the authors studied the results by means of impulse reaction function (IRF) and variance decomposition (VD). It is noteworthy that bringing the foreign exchange into the new model affects the situation of some variables in the previous one. In general, they hold that oil-less GDP changes variance in the four-variable model is most highly affected by the production growth shocks. The shocks related to foreign exchange, money and price levels growth lie in the next stage. Meanwhile, price level changes variance is mostly under the influence of shocks in inflation, money, production as well as foreign exchange growth. The study shows that positive production shock leads to real decrease in foreign exchange rate. Additionally, real foreign exchange rate shocks in turn lead to cuts in oil-less gross product. In the end, monetary shocks can lead to partial production increase but this achievement is possible only in the framework of admitting inflation. Regarding monetary shocks on the real foreign exchange rate, the authors have come to the conclusion that this type of shocks rises the rate. http://eprj.ir/article-1-230-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-230-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 3 2002 9 1 Social Capital Downfall in Iran’s Economy 35 62 FA Mahmoud Motevasseli motvaseli@ut.ac.ir Y Ali Biniaz N Economic literature in 1990s notifies that the larger a nation’s social capital is, the more fortunate and wealthier the nation would be. Social capital or social part of production function is a nation’s historical heritage that aids the civil society in solving its problems through confidence factor. Civil society institutions encourage the option of cooperation strategy by means of information transfer and giving long-run aspect to the role of civil society. The institutions make it possible to move toward rapid economic growth and social development by solving more unsolved social problems. Iranian people used to be deprived of such a historical bless, but after the triumph of Islamic Revolution in 1979, they could change the interest game structure in the civil society in a way that mutual confidence and cooperation became a desirable strategy in social interactions. But now a noticeable question is how we could comment on mutual confidence element within the past two decades of Iran’s economy with the help of social capital theory. Have the efforts of official institutions to guard the values of the Revolution guided the country to more confidence building or the approach taken was faulty? Has the national-level confidence become reinforced or it has been turned family-bound or group-bound confidence instead? Have the people been encouraged to more participation in civil society institutions or they would rather get out of civil society and appear as individuals in economic field instead? In the end, have the horizontal institutions had more chance or vertical ones and what is the difference between the two? Regarding the economic growth difference between 1980s and 1990s in Iran’s economy, the paper concludes that relative weakness in Iran’s economy in 1990s as well as the recent years might be due to social capital downfall though there are other causes as well. An option for boosting social capital in Iran’s economy at present might be movement toward regional monetary links. These links potentially support individual liberties and horizontal civil institutions by means of lowering inflation and offering physical capital needed for reconstruction. Democratic values in the new atomsphere are the cornerstone of social confidence building. http://eprj.ir/article-1-231-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-231-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 3 2002 9 1 Determining Key Industries from the Employment Viewpoint:By means of Input-Output Table 63 116 FA Aliasghar Asfandiyari Y Unemployment growth problem in the undeveloped and developing countries including Iran has underlined the need to determine and measure unemployment in these economies as well as to think out policies so as to develop the industries with more employment potentials. To this end, the paper uses the 1991 input-output model and calculates various industry employment potentials through various ways that intellectuals such as Rass Mussen and Hozari have proposed. It also makes use of two reforming methods put forward by Diamond. The results reveal that although employment is expected to rise rapidly in the industry sector of developing countries, the presence of excessive disorder in the production factor prices most often considerably restricts the recruitment capacity in this sector. From among the disorders, one might refer to the new wage rates in factory industries, which are usually higher than the social costs of work. Meanwhile, capital goods are valued with fewer prices. This research paper makes known that the key industries (from the employment point of view) highly contrast with the industries regarded as key ones from the output standpoint. It is to be noted that the former group does not lie in the domain of industry. Accordingly, the paper considers agriculture within the framework of key industries in three models out of the four applied. In other cases, key industries lean more toward service sectors. In fact, reaching a high level of employment necessarily needs neglecting some percentage of margin production growth in favor of employment. This has been tested in a country like India. Furthermore, the presence of employment-wise key industries within the service sector indicates that since Iran’s economic structure has not yet attained industrial maturity level and non-industrialization period (Clark-Fischer Theory), undoubtfully a good deal of employment within the service sectors must have originated from positive income elasticity of these sectors. Thus, indeed an all-out research should be conducted on the structures of unofficial economic sectors and services. Industry sector income elasticity for demand of such unofficial sectors or vague economic sectors is negative. The poorest performance in employment potentials is that of crude oil and natural gas that has played very little role in the employment. http://eprj.ir/article-1-232-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-232-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 3 2002 9 1 A Review on Agricultural Statistics Production in Iran 117 139 FA Nosratollah Salehi Y Iran’s Registration office which was established with the aim of registering four major life events (birth, death, marriage and divorce) made it clear that it was essential to gather the information on the country’s population and establish an agency in charge of gathering and producing statistics. Consequently in 1924 a rule was passed in six articles whereby Interior ministry became in charge of gathering and concentration of the necessary statistics. Other ministries were required to transfer their own needed information to the Interior Ministry as well. According to the rule, a permanent council including the representatives of the ministries was projected which continued its activities later as Statistics High Council. Hence, Iran’s statistics system has been semi-central from the beginning i.e. ministries other than the Interior Ministry used to produce statistics too. Later changes in the agencies related to the state statistical system, eventually lead to General Statistics Department’s separation from the Interior Ministry and establishment of Iran’s Statistics Center in 1965. Although principles such as supervision of Iran’s statistics Center on production and processing of statistical information of other executive organizations and establishment of State Data Bank were considered crucial, statistical system has still remained semi-central. And due to the lack of a defined relationship within the statistical system, other agencies produce statistics including agricultural statistics. The paper reviews 40 years of agricultural statistics history in Iran and briefly explains ideal statistical system characteristics. Finally, it is to be added that as the Statistics High Council approved “State Statistical System” in 2000, we should expect positive and constructive changes in the statistical system in future. http://eprj.ir/article-1-233-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-233-en.pdf