Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 6 2003 3 1 Economic Development as Self – Discovery 3 46 FA Bayazid Mardokhi Y Rikardo Hasman N Dani Radrik N In the presence of uncertainty about what a country can be good at producing, there can be great social value to discovering costs of domestic activities, because such discoveries can be easily imitated. Two failures of the laissez – faire outcome are being highlighted: there is too little investment and entrepreneurship ex ante, and too much production diversi-fication ex post. Optimal policy consists of counteracting these distortions: to encourage investment in the modern sector ex ante, but to rationalize production ex post. Some informal evidence on the building blocks of the model is provided. http://eprj.ir/article-1-224-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-224-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 6 2003 3 1 Electricity Demand Estimation in Industry, Agriculture and Service Sectors and its Price and Income Elasticities Appraisal 47 75 FA Ali Asghari Y Energy carriers including electricity play a critical role in human societies development, and as the time passes, their importance in the human socio-economic life rises. Therefore, knowing electricity demand and the factors affecting on it could have an effective role in economic decision-making. While dividing electricity demand into different consuming sectors, this study uses economic variables based on microeconomic theoretical fundamentals in order to estimate elecricity demand and explaining short and long-run price and income elasticities in each sector. For this purpose, time series data have been utilized and an estimation technique was made by the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Error Correction Model (ECM). Meanwhile, surveying each of the time series according to Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Perron test and cointegration tests through Engle-Granger and Engle-Yoo methods revealed that there is a long – run cointegration within the demand model variables. Furthermore, the results of electricity demand estimation in the industry sector by OLS and EMC methods show that price and income elasticities in the short run are less than unity and they are more than unity in the long run. Price elasticity in the agricultural sector is less than unity both in the short and long run while income elasticity in this sector is more than unity again both in the short and long run. Service sector Price and income elasticities are less than unity in the short run and more than unity in the long run. Additionally, as the price demand elasticity is a variable in these three sectors and according to the estimation findings in each sector, this elasticity has undergone a lot of fluctuations during the time in a way that the amount of the elasticity in all the sectors had decreased at the end of survey in contrast to its start. http://eprj.ir/article-1-225-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-225-en.pdf

Institute for Management and Planning studies 3115-7092 3115-7106 7 6 2003 3 1 77 107 FA Alireza Amini Y Jamshid Pazhoyan N http://eprj.ir/article-1-796-en.html http://eprj.ir/article-1-796-en.pdf