Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 29 4 2025 2 1 Rationalizing Choices under Justification Constraints 3 28 FA Hadi Pahlevan Yazdanabad Tehran Institute for Advanced Studies, Khatam University This paper presents a model to explain choice behavior in contexts where expanding the set of available options leads decision makers to select alternatives that would not have been justifiable under more limited choice sets. Unlike existing justification-based models, in which the difficulty of justifying a choice increases with the number of alternatives—potentially leading to a preference for smaller sets—our framework ensures that welfare does not decrease as the choice set expands. Thus, the model upholds the principle that "more is better." Following the model’s introduction, we examine the implications for revealed preferences and identify a characterizing axiom that distinguishes this framework. This axiom provides a basis for non-parametric empirical testing of the model.

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 29 4 2025 2 1 A model for Explaining Suppressed Consumption Volatility in Iran 29 62 FA Ahmadreza Jalali-Naini shahbod seighalani Mostafa Mohebi-Majd In the literature on business cycles, despite the fact that income volatility in emerging countries is lower than developed, consumption volatility is higher, which is known as the puzzle of excess consumption volatility over production. The difference in the source of shocks in developed and emerging countries and the difference in the mechanism of shock transmission in the economies of emerging countries compared to developed countries are known as two causes of the aforementioned puzzle. The purpose of this study is to explain the volatility of production, consumption and investment variables and the deficit of consumption volatility to production with respect to two structural features of the Iranian economy, including the dominance of external shocks or more specifically, income shocks in the oil sector (Mehrara and Oskoui, 2006) and the restriction of household access to the financial market by adding financial erosion from the separation of households into Ricardian and non-Ricardian within the framework of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model approximated by the structural features of the Iranian economy. Since households avoid rapid and significant changes in consumption, the utility function of the model is designed with consumption habits in mind. Also, adding the risk premium of the uncovered interest rate parity puzzle in the model shows that when the real exchange rate increases, the value of households' foreign currency debts increases and their financial vulnerability increases, and provides a better explanation for the puzzle posed in the Iranian economy. The results of the theoretical general equilibrium model of the model variables including σ_Y, σ_c, and σ_C⁄σ_Y represent 15.96, 5.07, and 0.25, respectively, which, compared to the values ​​extracted from the empirical part, which are 12.4, 5.78, and 0.46, respectively, represent the puzzle of the deficit of consumption volatility relative to production in Iran.

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 29 4 2025 2 1 The Effect of Sanctions on the Tehran Stock Exchange Using Sanctions Index Based on Automated Content Analysis 63 94 FA Mohammad Mahmoudi Meymand Ali Ebrahimnejad Seyed Mahdi Barakchian  In this study, we estimate the effect of economic sanctions levied on Iran by developing a “Sanctions Index” using an automated content analysis method to analyze the content of Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper for the period 2009 to 2018. We first document that the index corresponds to the historical events related to the sanctions. In the next step, using the ARDL error correction model, we estimate a long-run relationship between the sanctions index and the stock market index. The model shows that by controlling other macroeconomic variables, including exchange rate and inflation, our results demonstrate the sanctions index has a significant negative long-run effect on the Tehran stock market index.  

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 29 4 2025 2 1 Evaluating the Effect of Monetary Policymaker on the Stability of Iran's economy: A DSGE Approach 95 130 FA Farideh Khodadadi Shahid Beheshti University The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of the government's foreign exchange oil revenues and productivity in a small open oil economy under two low credit scenarios. Above the monetary policy maker. To achieve this goal, a new Keynesian random dynamic general equilibrium model has been designed in terms of the realities of Iran's economy, and then the effects of impulses have been investigated. After determining the input values of the model and estimating the parameters using the seasonal data of the Iranian economy during the period of 1991-2022 using the Bayesian estimation method, the results obtained from the simulation of the model variables indicate the validity of the model in describing the fluctuations of the Iranian economy. By examining the reaction shock functions for the key variables of the model in relation to the impulse of the government's foreign exchange oil revenues and productivity under two scenarios of low and high credibility of the monetary policy maker, we came to the conclusion that, when the monetary policy maker has the necessary credibility, the economic agents of the effects of the impulses consider it temporary and do not tie their decisions to it. Therefore, even if the policymaker does not adopt a specific policy to reduce the fluctuations of the impulses, the effects of the impulses will be discharged faster and the variables will stabilize sooner than when the credibility of the monetary policymaker is low.  

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 29 4 2025 2 1 A Survey of New Dynamic Macro Econometric Models:An Automatic General-to-Specific Approach 131 166 FA Nasser Khiabani , Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. Fahim Matoori , Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran Econometric methodologies can be evaluated based on several criteria, including consistency with economic theory, empirical robustness, forecasting performance, and policy relevance. Traditional theory-driven models often fail to account for non-stationarities in economic data—such as location shifts induced by structural changes—resulting in poor forecasting performance, unreliable policy simulations, and, at times, mathematical inconsistencies. This paper reviews the limitations associated with these evaluation criteria and introduces the Autometrics approach as a comprehensive model selection framework. Autometrics integrates theory-driven and data-driven strategies, often resulting in more candidate variables (N) than observations (T). The approach allows for the inclusion of theoretically relevant variables, dynamic adjustments, nonlinearities, deterministic and stochastic trends, and indicator saturation (IIS, SIS) to account for structural breaks and exogeneity, while preserving the integrity of theory-model parameter estimates. By employing a multi-path model selection algorithm, Autometrics identifies a congruent, parsimonious, and encompassing model through rigorous diagnostic testing of the reduction process.

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 29 4 2025 2 1 The Effect of Renewable Energy, Life Expectancy, and Globalization on the Ecological Footprint in Iran 167 191 FA Navid Kargar Dehbidi , Economic, Social and Extension Research Department, West Azerbaijan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center (AREEO), Urmia, Iran.  The ecological footprint is widely regarded as a comprehensive indicator of environmental pressure and a reliable metric for assessing sustainable development. Among the most effective strategies for reducing ecological footprints is the transition to clean energy, which addresses the challenges of global warming with minimal environmental harm. This study investigates the impact of renewable energy consumption, life expectancy, and globalization on the ecological footprint within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using data from 1990 to 2020. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study examines both short- and long-run relationships based on the stationarity properties of the variables. The findings indicate that renewable energy consumption significantly improves environmental quality: a 1% increase in clean energy usage is associated with a 0.05% and 0.08% reduction in the ecological footprint in the short and long run, respectively. While globalization appears to increase the ecological footprint, its effect is not statistically significant. In contrast, increased life expectancy is linked to a larger ecological footprint, suggesting higher environmental degradation. Additionally, the results confirm the presence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between ecological footprint and economic growth, consistent with the EKC hypothesis. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating renewable energy expansion into macroeconomic policy reforms and advocate for energy diversification strategies that prioritize clean energy adoption.