Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 7 5 2003 1 1 Applying “Analysis of Hierarchical Process” Model (AHP) in Considering Appropriate Criteria for Selecting Stocks in Tehran Stock Exchange 3 27 FA Mehdi Abzari Morteza Sameti Mehdi Delbari Stock selection method in stock exchange is an important issue for investors in such markets. Investors will gain benefits more than market average provided that they make logical decisions while selecting stocks. The issue of stock selection in markets like Tehran Stock Exchange (that are not so efficient) is requires more attention of the investors as there is not a suitable equilibrium between stocks real value and their prices. Hence, getting access to ways that can assist the investors in selecting stocks (particularly in the mentioned markets) is highly important. This study uses “analysis of hierarchical process” model (AHP) to examine the suitable criteria for selecting stocks in Tehran Stock Exchange. Research method used here is descriptive-survey field study. Statistical population in the study is the experts of investment corporations. The paper first offers a hierarchy of criteria in order to study the criteria that are effective on selecting stocks. Then it analyses ideas gathered from the experts. The findings of the study indicate that the most important criteria from the experts’ viewpoint is the dividend. It also reveals that essential analysis outweighs the technical one. It is to be noted in the end that the model used in the paper is consistent.

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 7 5 2003 1 1 Examining β Systematic Risks in Companies Admitted to Tehran Stock Exchange (1994-1999) 29 54 FA Atoussa Eskandari Ya’aghoub Hosseini From a certain point of view, risks are divided into two categories: systematic (i.e. market type) and unsystematic (i.e. non-market type). This categorization is majorly applied on financial papers and it has been used in this study. The risks a company encounters for getting more output, on the hand depend on the conditions of society and market (generally the political developments, economic situations, chaos and war, economic periods, etc). On the other hand, they depend on internal situations of the company such as company management, product prices, marketing issues, legal matters, capital status, and so on. The risks related to the whole activities are called systematic risks and those related to a certain company or activity are categorized as unsystematic. The latter could be eliminated by means of adding variety to investment activities. In other words, if the stock status of a company alters with the change of macroeconomic factors, the company faces a high systematic risk and the other way round. The amount to which the different companies is affected by the market risk factors (i.e. macroeconomic factors) is not the same. Based on this categorization, this study calculates systematic (market) risks in Tehran Stock Exchange. It proposes five hypotheses and tests them according to theoretical finance literature. In the end, it offers some recommendations for investors, capital market officials and researchers.

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 7 5 2003 1 1 Estimation of Private Investment Function in Iran’s Industrial Sector (1971-1998): Cointegration Method 55 79 FA Akbar Kashavarziyan payvasti Investment, as the engine of economic growth and development is considered dramatically important wordwide. This research paper studies private investment in one of the outstanding economic sectors of the country i.e. industry. It evaluates and analyzes its private investment function. The paper uses cointegration technique in its study. The degree of integration for all the variable used in the model were examined by static test and they had the same integration equal to unity. The model that is made by this method has long-run stability and does not suffer from false regression problem. After examining the long – run model, the paper analyses the short-run one and compares the two as well. The results of examining private investment function in Iran’s industry sector shows positive impacts of industry value-added variables in industry sector as well as those of the balance of facilities granted to the sector. However, governmental investment in industry sector and the occurance of the revolution have negative impacts that indicate the involvement of the government in the operational fields of industry sector investment. Foreign Exchange and inflation rates are added to the model while estimating the short-run function.

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 7 5 2003 1 1 The Effect of Underground Economy on the National Economy 81 118 FA Ali Asghar Esfandiary Arash Jamalmanesh Hidden nature of underground economy makes it difficult to measure and carry out a direct study on it . Thus, most of the common measurement methods are the ones that indirectly estimate the extent of these activities and suffer from restrictive assumptions. In the past two decades, economists began to pay attention to measurement of underground economy volume and its causes and effects more than before. A larger part of economic literature has been devoted to the studies done on this subject as a result. Although evidences are indicative of the probable prevalence of this phenomenon in Iranian economy, limited studies have been conducted on its nature and volume as well as on its socio - economic impacts. By definition, underground economy refers to the activities done legally or illegally without being registered in the official statistics. Accordingly, the activities in the context of underground economy can be categorised into four groups, namely houshold, unofficial, irregular and illegal. This researchwork presents various methods for estimating the volume of underground economy and applies one of them, i.e. regression method(OLS) to examine the extent of underground economy in Iran during 1976-2000. The resarch uses the "demand for money" method which has very few limitations and enjoys considerable benefits for mesuring illegal economy in Iran. We used tax burden variables, exchange burden, narcotics index, average traiff rate and exchange rate difference in the estimation models as the factors of formation and development of black economy in Iran. “Demand for currency” and “demand for money” variables have been applied as indicators reflecting the effects of black economy. Estimating black economy in Iran by using the selected models shows the performance of this part of national economy has experienced considerable growth during the previous decade and it requires the reserchers and policy - makers to pay more attention to the problem.