Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 8 3 2003 11 1 Projection of Iran's Expert Human Forces Supply through Stock-Flow Model 3 47 FA Hamid Sohrabi Expert human forces markets have some characteristics that exclude them from other markets. They are various, transparent and unstandardized. In these markets, employment is more or less continuous workers are self-supplying and their bargaining power is little. Although, it is expected that individuals maximize their desirability in relation to wages and leisure time, the supply-side reaction in these markets is little compared to the demand-side reaction. Prices role in the supply side is less than that of other organizational factors in these markets. This justifies the use of stock-flow approach for projecting the supply. According to the approach, expert human forces supply is composed of two factors, i.e., the "stock" of expert human forces at any time and the "flow" of new expert human forces. The results of projection by this method reveal that at the end of the Third Development Plan (2004), the total number of Iran's expert human supply would be over 2930.7 thousand persons. This number reaches over 4980.4 thousand persons at the end of the Fourth Development Plan (2009). Meanwhile, the amount of new supplies during the Third Plan (2000-2004) would be 1112.7 thousand persons, presuming that population participation rate for 20-29-years age group is 84 percent. It means that the annual increase is 222.5 thousand persons during the Third Plan and 362.6 thousand persons within the Fourth Plan. Presuming that the population participation rate for 20-29-years age group is 97 percent, the same number would be 256.9 thousand persons in the Third Plan and 418.8 persons in the Fourth Plan.

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 8 3 2003 11 1 Analysis of Job Centers’ Role in Labor Market 49 79 FA Alireza Amini Job centers have an outstanding role in the process of labor force employment through cutting the costs of labor force adjustment. This paper studies the dynamic models of the labor force demand with the aim of pinpointing job centers role in labor market. According to the results, "job search and matching" approach better and more thoroughly considers the role of job centers in the labor markets. Job centers affect labor supply process through the rate of job offers. They affect labor employment process through cutting adjustment costs. The results of some empirical studies on "job search" theory show that job centers can be effective in decreasing the unemployment rate as well as in decreasing the disequilibrium of labor markets within various areas. Moreover, job centers are effective in increasing economic efficiency and production growth by means of matching the skills and jobs for labor force. Consequently, these centers can accelerate the speed of employment through relating labor markets requirements and the country's training system and by offering job counseling services to the people who are offered fewer jobs. During the recent years, not only disequilibrium has increased in the macroeconomic level of Iran's labor market, but it has been intensified within some areas of labor market such as youths, women, university graduates and provinces. Job centers have not been developed in Iran from quantitative or qualitative point of view. If these centers are quantitatively or qualitatively developed and their structures get reformed, they can be effective in eliminating or decreasing labor market's information insufficiency and cutting adjustment costs. This also can lead to labor market's disequilibrium in different levels and that of unemployment rates.

Institute for Management and Planning studies 2251-9092 8 3 2003 11 1 A Model for Programmed Allocation and Financial Resources Control by Means of Fuzzy Logic: Kish Free Trade Zone Case Study 81 119 FA Akbar Ahmadi Mohamad mahdi Bahkish From among the major problems of Iran's present financial resources allocation system, one could refer to unclear relations between financial resources allocation policies and economic indicators as well as insufficient attention to the allocations according to projects priorities, absence of a controlled mechanism for allocation aimed for decreasing or eliminating deviations from the planned goals, lack of an index for balanced allocations to projects and lack of executive solutions during the plans. This paper offers a model for programmed allocations of financial resources with the aim of overcoming the mentioned problems. The model is composed of three major parts. The first part includes a mid-run development plan in which a hierarchal programming framework, goals, policies and executive solutions are established and prioritized. The second part is a controlling system that includes state-space equations and controls. These equations establish the relationship between allocation policies and performance indicators. The second part offers optimum allocable amounts for development plans policies during the development plan. The third part includes a goal programming model with two sets of general goals and a set of constraint functions that are used for determining optimum amounts to be allocated to the development plan's executive solutions in every year. The model was applied to Kish Free Trade Zone Organization and the amounts allocable to executive solutions in the development plan were examined.