2026-09-08T22:45:13+03:30 http://eprj.ir/browse.php?mag_id=117&slc_lang=fa&sid=1

117-1114 2026-09-08 10.1002

EPRJ 3115-7092 3115-7106 10.66224/eprj 2014 18 4 Ali Taiebnia taiebnia@ut.ac.ir Hossein Amiri hossienamiri@gmail.com Fatemeh Ravishi ravishi_f@yahoo.com The harmful effects of chronic high inflation in the economy led the governments and country’s monetary authorities seek to reduce or eliminate this phenomenon. Therefore it’s very important to predict how inflation moves providing an appropriate economic model is a crucial factor to forecast inflation, so on. In this regard, in the present research, we attempt to generate a appropriate model for forecasting inflation using New Keynesian Phillips Curve. At first, purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips Curve and hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve to be estimated by the analysis of pricing models and the discussions of stickiness of wages and prices. This means that, we estimate purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips Curve, hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve by generalized method of moments and also estimate hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve by autoregressive distributed lag method and autoregressive moving average for the period Q - Q . For the evaluation of the performance of the different models over various forecast horizons, finally, we construct series of -step, -step and -step-ahead out-of-sample forecasts over the period . The results show that the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve provides relatively more accurate forecast of inflation in Iran compared to the other models for middle forecast horizon while they are outperformed by the time series model (ARMA( )) only for the short forecast horizon and by ARDL( ) for long forecast horizon. New Keynesian Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasting Forecast Evaluation Generalized Method of Moments Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method Autoregressive Moving Average. 2014 1 01 3 26 http://eprj.ir/article-1-1114-en.pdf

117-1115 2026-09-08 10.1002

EPRJ 3115-7092 3115-7106 10.66224/eprj 2014 18 4 Abolfazl shahabadi shahabadi@basu.ac.ir Behzad Amiri amiri.beh@gmail.com Poverty is an issue that has been for many years and despite the world economic growth and the implementation of various policies against to poverty, it is also surround many people's lives and its decrease has become into one of the most important objectives of economic policymakers world. Financial sector for links with other different sectors of society plays important role and it can change the poverty through ways such as to facilitate exchange, credit, reducing risk and providing other financial services. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of financial development on reducing poverty in Islamic countries are members of group D8 using an unbalanced panel data approach for the period 1990-2010. Due to the economic structure based on natural resources in the members of group D8 and in these countries financial development is not in order to develop markets of new factors production and innovation, the results indicate that the effect of financial development on poverty is insignificant. Also, the results show the variable revenue growth has negative and significant effect on poverty. Also, because the variable of human capital has very small share in economic growth (due to Lack of coordination of macroeconomic policies and education policies) the human capital variable has negative and insignificant effect on poverty. Also, the variables such as inflation and economic freedom have positive and significant effect on poverty. This result for the economic freedom variable is due to structure of the economy of countries of group d8 that relies on natural resources. In that economy human capital has small share in economy, improvement in the economic freedom is just in rules of international trade and financial and business markets while we do not see improvement in rules of labor markets, Judicial structure, Property Rights that these are in favor of the poor. Financial Development Poverty Group of D8 Human Capital Panel Data. 2014 1 01 27 42 http://eprj.ir/article-1-1115-en.pdf

117-1116 2026-09-08 10.1002

EPRJ 3115-7092 3115-7106 10.66224/eprj 2014 18 4 Ali Raeispour j_pajooyan@yahoo.com Jamshid Pajooyan raeispour@iauk.ac.ir This paper examines the impact of public health expenditures and economic changes on Iran. To do so,it shall use a solo model, a model to explain variations in national health and productivity of an input.It reviews the scientific literature and the effectiveness and accountability of the public health expenditure & labor productivity empirical results of panel 28 provinces of the data model in the period of a judge and review the impact during 1379-89.The results indicate that the cost of health expenditure has positive effects on labor productivity are constant, while the investments in infrastructure, health, impact on productivity of ink has been. 6.3 % of GDPr growth embodied on productivity improvements, results from total government health investment growth in action. It is important to note that the current government health spending is 20 times greater than the impact of government health expenditure in the course of construction are. At the regional level, as well as different patterns of growth resulting from improvement has been seen that this can be interpreted by considering the characteristics of each province. Factor Productivity Public Health Investment Dynamic Pool Data Regional Approach Solow Model Economic Growth. 2014 1 01 43 68 http://eprj.ir/article-1-1116-en.pdf

117-1117 2026-09-08 10.1002

EPRJ 3115-7092 3115-7106 10.66224/eprj 2014 18 4 Siavash Jani jani@mporg.com The studies show if the wages are assigned by productivity, with wage discrepancy increase, income inequality will be caused by productivity increase. So by estimating total productivity the relation between productivity and income inequality index will be estimated by using econometrics model in Iran during (1974-2009). The results show that not only income inequality has a relation with unemployment and inflation but also has positive relation with total factor productivity (and labor productivity) on the other hand when the share of wage and salary caused by productivity growth increase, the income inequality will increase significantly. According to the positive relation of productivity with wage and salary these results show that productivity increase will cause income inequality by expanding inequality of wage and salary. Income Distribution Inequality Share of Wage and Salary of Total Income Total Factor Productivity Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate. 2014 1 01 69 86 http://eprj.ir/article-1-1117-en.pdf

117-1118 2026-09-08 10.1002

EPRJ 3115-7092 3115-7106 10.66224/eprj 2014 18 4 Abdollah khani dr.a.khani@gmail.com Hamideh afshari hamidehafshari@gmail.com In this study, the relationship between structure of democracy and dictatorship firms, structure of non-competitive market and abnormal returns is assessed. For this purpose, we evaluate relationship the main criteria of the democracy structure in research literature on Iran's financial market- institution investors- and product market competition with abnormal return. It uses data that extracted from information published by the Stock Exchange of Tehran and tax records for 78 firms listed in Tehran stock exchange, also using multivariate regression, named Carhart's four factor models (1997). The results indicate that there is a significant correlation between the structure of democracy - the percentage of institutional shareholders - and abnormal returns in a non-competitive market. In other words, in the non-competitive market, whatever the democratic structure of the firm is more desirable becomes greater efficiency. Firm\'s democracy structure Firm\'s dictatorship structure Institution investors abnormal return noncompetitive industries 2014 1 01 87 102 http://eprj.ir/article-1-1118-en.pdf

117-1119 2026-09-08 10.1002

EPRJ 3115-7092 3115-7106 10.66224/eprj 2014 18 4 Zahra Karimi Moughari zakarimi@umz.ac.ir Masoumeh Mahmoudian m.mahmoudian.88@gmail.com Capital accumulation is one of the first requirements of development. Capital accumulation methods play a crucial role in the governance and institutional structures. Globalization has a positive impact on the world production and employment. A large part of this effect can be seem in developing country, especially in textile, clothing and leather industries, whereas in many industrialized countries that were concentrated on high value added goods and services, production of such labour intensive activities is declined and a large amount of related jobs has been destroyed. However, all developing countries are not able to have an active presence in highly competitive global markets. During the past three decades, Turkey has increased her share in the world textile and clothing production and exports, while Iran has lost a large part of its production and employment in these sectors. This paper investigates the causes of great changes of competitiveness of textile industries in Turkey and Iran by an institutional approach as competitive capability in textile industry has been affected by chain of structural causes during the time and passed trajectory of industrial development in these countries created different institutional capacity. Since mid 1970s, these countries implemented two different strategies that the outcome is observable in the textile industries' performance. Dependence on oil revenues and distribution of oil rent prevented Iran from formation of competitive industries, whereas efforts for increased presence in international markets, particularly in textile and clothing, led Turkey to boost exports. Capital Accumulation Textile Industries Institutional Performance Iran Turkey. 2014 1 01 103 128 http://eprj.ir/article-1-1119-en.pdf

117-1120 2026-09-08 10.1002

EPRJ 3115-7092 3115-7106 10.66224/eprj 2014 18 4 Mohamad Reza Javadi Yeganeh Mahmoud Motavaseli Somayeh Tohidlou smtohidlou@gmail.com During constitutional era and the years leading up to it, many economic organizations has formed because of exposure of king and intellectuals to the west. Also it can be seen economic reform and merchant activities in this period, But less spoken aboat lifestyle and behavioral characteristic of people. This article attempts to present an image of the Persian people in Gajar in terms of lifestyle and use of cultural or essential goods. And also based on limited data in documents, travelogues and numerous historical books from prices and economic situation of Gajar period is offered a view of the economic situation of Iranian households. Finally, the results of this paper can be pointed to a model of annual inflation, reasons of serious inflation sectional appearance, the rural and the urban situation regarding the inflatin and characteristic of income of people during documents. constitutional era Lifestyle Consumption and Income Basket Inflation Rate. 2014 1 01 129 160 http://eprj.ir/article-1-1120-en.pdf

117-1121 2026-09-08 10.1002

EPRJ 3115-7092 3115-7106 10.66224/eprj 2014 18 4 Masoud Banafi banafi@ut.ac.ir Mohammad Noruzi Governments are considered as complex social systems. Handling and controlling these systems are very intricate. In order to achieve ideal results, national politicians and policymakers intervene purposefully in these systems. Arranging Meta documents and accrediting them are considered of these purposeful efforts to reach the expected outcomes in operational level and to achieve objective, observable and planned changes. However, some challenges are arisen in the process of implementation and operationalization of these Meta documents which make the obtained results different from what were expected. Focusing on Islamic Republic of Iran's state, this study scrutinizes the challenges in the process of operationalization of Meta policies into executive programs by employing system theory and indicating how the expected results of purposeful interventions fail. Finally, in addition to providing considerations, this study presents policy and practical implications in this area. The results of this study show that training managers, experts and scholars who have enough competencies in solving and analyzing the qualitative-quantitative paradoxes in Meta documents and in supportive programs and implementation is very effective. Moreover, establishing an institution for observing and monitoring national indices based on appropriate statistical and quantitative data and its centrality to public and private organization is very necessary. Redefinition of appropriate composite indices, appropriate operationalizing of statistical and quantitative indices in order to avoiding policy and implementation paradoxes and creating companionship and synchronism in implementation level are the other implications of this study. System Black Box Meta Documents policy Vision Statement Five-Year Development Plan Annual Budget 2014 1 01 161 195 http://eprj.ir/article-1-1121-en.pdf