year 9, Issue 3 (August,September 2004)                   JPBUD 2004, 9(3): 67-94 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Khalessi A, Siami Namini S. Estimation of Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) and Potential Output. JPBUD. 2004; 9 (3) :67-94
URL: http://jpbud.ir/article-1-107-en.html
Abstract:   (11628 Views)
This paper tries to survey and estimate Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) and potential output. It uses the unobserved components model to propose a new method. The model consists of Ukan Law equations and Philips Curve. It uses unobservable key economic variable in the form of unobserved random trends in an equation system of three variables namely unemployment, gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation rate. The model parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood method and Kalman Filter. Unobserved components are estimated by means of soothing algorithm. The findings of estimation show that the production gap has negative relationship with the deviation of unemployment from Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). The effect of business cycles on unemployment and inflation rates has been negative. This means that if real unemployment rate reaches the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU), the economy will be at the maximum level of production free from inflation pressure. According to the results of the paper, this rate has been estimated 7 percent in Iran during 1989-2002.
Full-Text [PDF 432 kb]   (8489 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Applicable |
Received: 2011/09/26 | ePublished: 2004/07/15

Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:
CAPTCHA

© 2021 All Rights Reserved | The Journal of Planning and Budgeting

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb