Mahmoudi M, Kazemi-pour S, Ahrari M, Nikoo-nesbati A. (2012). Iran's Population Projection considering Socio-Economic Factors based on a Multidisciplinary Approach.
JEPR.
17(2), 97-126.
URL:
http://jpbud.ir/article-1-613-en.html
1- , mahmoudi@psrc.ac.ir
Abstract: (16200 Views)
Population growth is a phenomenon that may not be explained only by relying on economic factors. Thus, this article tries to explain population growth issue according to Inglehart-Welzel's Modernization and Cultural Change Theory besides economic factors. It also tries to take a multidisciplinary approach to project and model the strategic variable of population on the basis of socio-economic variables influencing it according to Inglehart's theory up to 2025 in the framework of three economic scenarios, i.e. continuing status quo, the effect of Subsidies Target-Orientation Law and the fulfillment of Iran 2025 Vision goals. The results show that population growth in each scenario follows a decreasing trend asserting Modernization and Cultural Change Theory on the embrace of post-materialistic values. Making the comprehensive population policies according to developmental and multidisciplinary perspectives is a must in Iran's strategic and long-run planning system in a way to project and analyze the future socio-economic and cultural situations.
Type of Study:
Research |
Received: Feb 19 2013 | Accepted: Aug 26 2013 | ePublished: Aug 26 2013