Planning and Budgeting

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Population growth is a phenomenon that may not be explained only by relying on economic factors. Thus, this article tries to explain population growth issue according to Inglehart-Welzel's Modernization and Cultural Change Theory besides economic factors. It also tries to take a multidisciplinary approach to project and model the strategic variable of population on the basis of socio-economic variables influencing it according to Inglehart's theory up to 2025 in the framework of three economic scenarios, i.e. continuing status quo, the effect of Subsidies Target-Orientation Law and the fulfillment of Iran 2025 Vision goals. The results show that population growth in each scenario follows a decreasing trend asserting Modernization and Cultural Change Theory on the embrace of post-materialistic values. Making the comprehensive population policies according to developmental and multidisciplinary perspectives is a must in Iran's strategic and long-run planning system in a way to project and analyze the future socio-economic and cultural situations.

Keywords: Modernization Theory, Inglehart-Welzel, Population Growth Theories, Neural Network, Institution

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