Planning and Budgeting

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The main objective of this study is to investigate the major determinants of exports in developing countries over 2006-2012 using the econometric approach of Bayesian Model Averaging. According to the empirical results of the study, the degree of openness and ratio of gross domestic saving to GDP are key factors in explaining exports in these countries. The impact of other variables such as import tariffs and duties, the number of internet users, and the rate of inflation also have been relatively important. In addition, the results indicate that the share of agriculture in economic activities has a negative impact on exports with a probability of 32%, while the share of industry has a positive but insignificant effect on exports. The study concluded that the variables related to communication facilities (the number of mobile subscribers and Internet users) have positive effects on exports. According to the results, it seems that some policy actions should be taken to reduce inflation rate, enhance education system, allocate more efficiency labor forces among different economic sectors, and implement a reasonable proportionality among different indirect taxes. Central Banks of the countries under study also should take some appropriate foreign exchange policies in order to expand exports.

Keywords: International Economics, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Exports, Developing Countries, Open Economy.

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