دوره 25، شماره 3 - ( پاییز 1399 )                   دوره25 شماره 3 صفحات 94-65 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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Khiabani N, Tavassoli S. A Review of Energy Demand Models. JPBUD. 2020; 25 (3) :65-94
URL: http://jpbud.ir/article-1-1965-fa.html
خیابانی ناصر، توسلی سلاله. مروری بر مدلسازی تقاضای انرژی. فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه. 1399; 25 (3) :94-65

URL: http://jpbud.ir/article-1-1965-fa.html

مروری بر مدلسازی تقاضای انرژی
ناصر خیابانی*1، سلاله توسلی2
1- دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی. ، naser.khiabani@atu.ac.ir
2- دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی.
چکیده:   (2871 مشاهده)
انتخاب مدل مناسب به منظور برآورد کشش تقاضای حامل‌های انرژی یکی از چالش‌های اساسی پیشا‌روی پژوهشگران این حوزه است. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر به بررسی کاربرد دو رویکرد متداول «تک ‏معادله‌ای» و «سیستمی» در مدلسازی تقاضای انرژی می‌پردازد. رویکردهای تک ‏معادله‌ای با وجود سادگی در برآورد پارامترها، با مشکلاتی نظیر درون‌زایی و بی‌ثباتی در پارامترها مواجه هستند. علاوه‌ بر این، رویکرد اشاره ‏شده از پشتوانۀ نظری قدرتمندی برخوردار نیست و به همین دلیل، تفسیر دقیق اقتصادی کشش‌های خودی و متقاطع با ضعف جدی مواجه می‌شود. در مقابل، ساختار معادله ‏های تقاضا در رویکرد سیستمی بر پایه مبانی اقتصاد خرد است و همین امر موجب می‌شود که کشش‌های خودی و متقاطع به ‏سهولت از این مدل‌ها استخراج شوند و تعامل ‏های بین حامل‌های انرژی نیز لحاظ ‌شود. در مقابل، ضعف این رویکرد وابستگی بیش از حد به انواع فرم‌های تبعی انعطاف‌پذیر است، به‌طوری که انتخاب فرم تبعی می‌تواند تاثیر بسیار مهمی در برآوردهای کشش‌های تقاضای انرژی داشته باشد. در این پژوهش، علاوه بر بررسی و تحلیل مزایا و کاستی‌های این دو رویکرد، ویژگی‌های دو فرم تبعی متداول در مدلسازی سیستمی تقاضای انرژی، به ‏طور مشخص فرم تبعی ترانسلوگ و لاجیت خطی مورد مقایسه و تحلیل قرار می‌گیرند. نتایج تحلیلی ما نشان می‌دهد که احتمال به‏ دست آوردن تخمین‌های موافق با محدودیت‌های نظریه تقاضا در مدل لاجیت خطی بیش‏تر از فرم تبعی ترانسلوگ است.
واژه‌های کلیدی: کشش تقاضا، جانشینی بین حامل‌ها، ترانسلوگ، لاجیت خطی، مدلسازی پویا
متن کامل [PDF 740 kb]   (592 دریافت)    
نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي |
دریافت: 1399/10/24 | پذیرش: 1399/12/3 | انتشار الکترونیک: 1399/12/29
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