دوره 28، شماره 3 - ( پاییز 1402 )                   دوره28 شماره 3 صفحات 42-3 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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Tavassoli S, Khiabani N. (2023). Spatio-Temporal Diffusion of Housing Prices in Iran. JPBUD. 28(3), 3-42. doi:10.61186/jpbud.28.3.3
URL: http://jpbud.ir/article-1-2224-fa.html
توسلی سلاله، خیابانی ناصر. انتشار فضایی-زمانی قیمت مسکن در مناطق ایران فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه 1402; 28 (3) :42-3 10.61186/jpbud.28.3.3

URL: http://jpbud.ir/article-1-2224-fa.html

انتشار فضایی-زمانی قیمت مسکن در مناطق ایران
سلاله توسلی1 ، ناصر خیابانی* 2
1- دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران
2- گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران ، naser.khiabani@atu.ac.ir
چکیده:   (1431 مشاهده)
بررسی پویایی رفتار قیمت مسکن در کشور نیازمند مطالعۀ نحوه تعاملات فضایی مجموعه‌ای از بازارهای منطقه‌ای به‌‏هم پیوسته است. قیمت مسکن به‏‌طور بالقوه در فضا ناهمگن است، اما تحولات قیمت در مناطق مختلف به دلیل دو ویژگی وابستگی و ناهمگنی فضایی می‌تواند کاملاً مستقل از یکدیگر نباشد و نکتۀ کلیدی در این بحث توجه به منبع وابستگی‌های مقطعی است. وابستگی مقطعی می‌تواند ناشی از نقش فضا در فرایندهای اقتصادی یا ناشی از شوک‌های مشترک کل اقتصاد نظیر شوک نفتی باشد. در این پژوهش با کمک الگوی انتشار فضایی-زمانی قیمت مسکن مشاهده می‌شود که منطقه تهران به عنوان مرکز تحولات اقتصادی و بالتبع محل تمرکز درآمدهای نفتی کشور به عنوان منطقۀ مسلط در کشور عمل می‏‌کند و نقش کلیدی را در انتشار تکانه‌های قیمتی مسکن بر همسایگان و سایر مناطق ایفا می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که مجاورت مالی در مدلسازی انتشار فضایی قیمت مسکن اهمیت بیش‎تری نسبت به مجاورت جغرافیایی دارد و مناطق با لینک‌های مالی قوی‌تر با منطقه تهران، در بلندمدت بیش‏ترین اثرپذیری را از شوک‌های واردشده به این منطقه خواهند داشت.
واژه‌های کلیدی: انتشار فضایی-زمانی قیمت مسکن، رفتار قیمت مسکن، بازارهای منطقه‌ای مسکن، منطقۀ مسلط، مدل پویای تصحیح خطای برداری
متن کامل [PDF 2355 kb]   (374 دریافت)    
نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي | موضوع مقاله: اقتصاد کلان
دریافت: 1402/5/1 | پذیرش: 1402/6/18 | انتشار الکترونیک: 1402/9/10
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