Volume 30, Issue 4 (Winter 2026)
JEPR 2026, 30(4): 143-187 |
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Gholampour Fordoei M, Abounoori E, Mohammadi T. (2026). Economic Sanctions and Investment in Iran: Evidence of Asymmetric Effects. JEPR. 30(4), 143-187.
URL: http://eprj.ir/article-1-2384-en.html
URL: http://eprj.ir/article-1-2384-en.html
1- Ph.D. of Student Economics, Department of Economic, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran. , m.gholampour@semnan.ac.ir
2- Professor, Department of Economic, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
3- Professor, Department of Theoretical Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.
2- Professor, Department of Economic, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
3- Professor, Department of Theoretical Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract: (1055 Views)
Investment is a critical driver of economic growth; however, investment levels in Iran have exhibited a declining trend in recent years. Economic sanctions, as instruments of political and economic pressure, exert wide-ranging effects on the national economy, the business environment, and investment activity. This study investigates the asymmetric effects of economic sanctions on investment in Iran. To measure sanctions, the study employs the novel sanctions index developed by Laudati and Pesaran (2023). Constructed through systematic content analysis of major international newspapers, this index provides a quantitative measure of the intensity of sanctions imposed on Iran and closely reflects key historical episodes of sanction escalation. Using quarterly data from 2009 to 2023 and applying the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, the study examines the asymmetric relationship between sanctions and investment. The findings reveal that investment responds asymmetrically to sanctions: the imposition of sanctions exerts a significant negative effect on investment, whereas the easing of sanctions has no statistically significant impact. In addition, economic growth positively influences investment, while interest rates also exhibit asymmetric effects. The study’s primary contribution lies in combining the NARDL methodology with a novel sanctions index, enabling a more realistic assessment of investment behavior under sanction conditions.
Keywords: Iran, Economic Sanctions, Investment, Asymmetric Effects, Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (NARDL).
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Macroeconomics
Received: Aug 27 2025 | Accepted: Feb 10 2026 | ePublished: Jun 29 2026
Received: Aug 27 2025 | Accepted: Feb 10 2026 | ePublished: Jun 29 2026
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