Volume 30, Issue 2 (summer 2025)
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Kargar Dehbidi N, Zibaei M, Tarazkar M H. (2025). Factors Affecting Food Prices in D-8 Group Countries. JEPR. 30(2),
URL: http://eprj.ir/article-1-2369-en.html
URL: http://eprj.ir/article-1-2369-en.html
1- Assistant Professor, Economic, Social and Extension Research Department, West Azerbaijan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center (AREEO), Urmia, Iran , kargar.navid@yahoo.com
2- Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Iran
3- Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Iran
2- Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Iran
3- Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Iran
Abstract: (59 Views)
Food prices play a vital role in assessing food access. Rising food prices, along with declining real income and purchasing power, can increase household vulnerability, especially in developing nations. This study investigates the causes and factors contributing to price increases in D-8 group countries and develops strategies to enhance food security. The study focuses on Asian and African Islamic countries, which have varied climatic conditions impacting agriculture. Despite these differences, a substantial part of their populations faces food insecurity. In This study, according to stationary properties of the variables, the panel cointegration approach was applied. Also, based on the results of Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests, the short and long-run relationship was estimated by Error Correction Model (ECM) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) respectively. The results indicate a long-term relationship between the variables studied and the food price index. In the long term, the exchange rate, energy prices, per capita income, money supply, and the trade balance of the agricultural sector contribute to increasing the food price index. Conversely, agricultural supply and the real interest rate decrease the food price index. As the signs of the model variables, it is suggested that in the time of macroeconomic policies and reforms, the effects of increasing exchange rates and energy prices on food vulnerability should be considered. Additionally, improving the agricultural sector's trade balance through appropriate infrastructure is essential. Furthermore, implementing a diversification policy in energy sources, such as the development of clean energy, can help reduce energy price fluctuations.
Keywords: Food price, Real exchange rate, Trade balance, Energy prices, Panel data, D-8 Group Countries
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Macroeconomics
Received: May 06 2025 | Accepted: Nov 18 2025 | ePublished: Jan 07 2026
Received: May 06 2025 | Accepted: Nov 18 2025 | ePublished: Jan 07 2026
References
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30. WDI. (2022). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from https://www.world bank.org/
31. Adil, S., Bhatti, A. A., Waqar, S., & Amin, S. (2021). Unleashing the indirect influence of oil prices on food prices via exchange rate: New evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(4), 1-8. [DOI:10.1002/pa.2615]
32. Awan, A., Ahmad, H. K., Hussain, A., & Marri, M. Y. K. (2021). Prices, Money Supply and Output Nexus in Pakistan-A Macro Econometric Model. iRASD Journal of Economics, 3(2), 106-118. [DOI:10.52131/joe.2021.0302.0029.]
33. Baer-Nawrocka, A., & Sadowski, A. (2019). Food security and food self-sufficiency around the world: A typology of countries. Plos One, 14(3), 1-15. [DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0213448]
34. Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data (Vol. 1). John Wiley & Sons.
35. Byrne, J., Fazio, G., & Fiess, N. (2013). Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals. Journal of Development Economics, 101, 16-26. [DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.09.002]
36. D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation. (2025). Retrieved from https://developing8.org//
37. Dawe, D., & Timmer, CP. (2012). Why stable food prices are a good thing: lessons from stabilizing rice prices in Asia. Global Food Security, 1(2), 127-133. [DOI:10.1016/j.gfs.2012.09.001]
38. De Hoyos, R., & Medvedev, D. (2011). Poverty effects of higher food prices: a global perspective. Review of Development Economics, 15(3), 387-402. [DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9361.2011.00615.x]
39. Dehbidi, N. K., Zibaei, M., & Tarazkar, M. H. (2022). The effect of climate change and energy shocks on food security in Iran's provinces. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 14(2), 417-438. [DOI:10.1111/rsp3.12517.]
40. Dogan, E. (2016). Analyzing the linkage between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth by considering structural break in time-series data. Renewable Energy, 99, 1126-1136. [DOI:10.1016/j.renene.2016.07.078]
41. Dua, P., & Goel, D. (2021). Determinants of inflation in India. The Journal of developing areas, 55(2). [DOI:10.1353/jda.2021.0040.]
42. FAO. (2022). FAO Food Price Index. Available at: https://www.fao price index.com/(Retrieved at: 20 Nov 2022).
43. Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (2010). Determinants of agricultural and mineral commodity prices. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series.
44. Ibrahim, M. H. (2015). Oil and food prices in Malaysia: a nonlinear ARDL analysis. Agricultural and Food Economics, 3(1), 1-14. [DOI:10.1186/s40100-014-0020-3.]
45. Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics. 90(1): 1-44. [DOI:10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2]
46. Köse, N., & Ünal, E. (2024). The effects of the oil price and temperature on food inflation in Latin America. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(2), 3269-3295. [DOI:10.1007/s10668-022-02817-2]
47. Lombardi, M.J., Osbat, C., & Schnatz, B. (2012). Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach. Empirical Economics. 43: 651-670. [DOI:10.1007/s00181-011-0494-8]
48. Mawejje, J. (2016). Food prices, energy and climate shocks in Uganda. Agricultural and Food Economics, 4(1), 1-18. [DOI:10.1186/s40100-016-0049-6]
49. Najiatun, N., Adil, M., & Sanusi, M. (2022). The Influence Money Supply, Inflation and Transaction Volume on Consumer Goods Index. In SHS Web of Conferences (Vol. 149, p. 03037). EDP Sciences. [DOI:10.1051/shsconf/202214903037]
50. Nazlioglu, S., Erdem, C., & Soytas, U. (2013). Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets. Energy Economics, 36, 658-665. [DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.11.009]
51. Pal, D., & Mitra, S. K. (2018). Interdependence between crude oil and world food prices: A detrended cross correlation analysis. Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 492, 1032-1044. [DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2017.11.033]
52. Pedroni, P. (2001). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 15, 93-130. [DOI:10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15004-2]
53. Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20(03), 597-625. [DOI:10.1017/S0266466604203073]
54. Pemunta, N. V., Ngo, N. V., Fani Djomo, C. R., Mutola, S., Seember, J. A., Mbong, G. A., & Forkim, E. A. (2021). The Grand Ethiopian renaissance dam, Egyptian national security, and human and food security in the Nile River basin. Cogent Social Sciences, 7(1), 1-18. [DOI:10.1080/23311886.2021.1875598]
55. Rahman, M.M., & Velayutham, E., (2020): Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus: New evidence from South Asia. Renewable Energy. 147, 399-408. [DOI:10.1016/j.renene.2019.09.007]
56. Rezitis, A.N. (2015). The relationship between agricultural commodity prices, crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates: a panel VAR approach and causality analysis. International Review of Applied Economics, 29 (3), 403-434. [DOI:10.1080/02692171.2014.1001325]
57. Stern, D. I., & Cleveland, C. J. (2004). Energy and Economic Growth, Encyclopedia of Energy, 2, 35-51. [DOI:10.1016/B0-12-176480-X/00147-9]
58. Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Rasoulinezhad, E., & Yoshino, N. (2019). Energy and food security: Linkages through price volatility. Energy policy, 128, 796-806. [DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.043]
59. Tarazkar, M. H., Kargar Dehbidi, N., & Shokoohi, Z. (2018). Estimating the ecological footprint of agricultural production in D-8 Islamic countries. Environmental Sciences, 16(4), 17-32. [In Persian].
60. WDI. (2022). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from https://www.world bank.org/
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